ISSN 2096-2533

CN 42-1881/F



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发布时间:2021-03-31作者:鲁传一 陈文颖浏览次数:200

The Scenarios of China Reaching the Peaking of Carbon

Emission Before 2030 and Its Macroeconomic Implications

Lu Chuanyi and Chen Wenying



Abstract: At the 75th session of UN General Assembly, China proposed the goals of peaking carbon emission before 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060, which led the global response to climate change and attracted wide attention and praise all over the world. It is important for the research on the realization path and its economic impact of reaching the peak before 2030. In this paper, the dynamic computable general equilibrium model TECGE is used to analyze the macroeconomic impact of enhanced peaking commitment of China. Four scenarios are set for the CO2 emission peaks in 2030, 2027, 2025 and 2023, with the peaks of 10.8, 10.7, 10.58 and 10.36 billion tons respectively. The impact of the earlier peaking compared with the peaking in 2030 is simulated respectively. The results show that compared with the benchmark scenario, the earlier for the peak year, the higher the carbon price is for the corresponding year. The GDP and other macroeconomic variables such as total consumption, total imports and exports, etc. are declined, but the proportion of tertiary industry are increased. The earlier is the peaking year, the more declined for the macroeconomic variables, and the more increased for the proportion of tertiary industry. After the quantitative analysis using the CGE model, some policy suggestions are put forward to achieve the goal of reaching the carbon emission peak earlier and promote high quality economic development.

Keywords: Carbon Emission Peak Earlier; CGE; Carbon Tax; Macro-economy


基金项目:国 家 重 点 研 发 计 划 课 题“ 我 国 应 对 气 候 变 化 与 经 济 社 会 环 境 协 同 治 理 路 径 模 拟 研 究 ”(2018YFC1509006)。




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