Trade Development and Environmental Pollution at Home and Abroad in the Context of Dual Cycle：Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Evidence
Chen Lin, Chen Meilian and Zhou Lihong
摘要：在国际国内双循环背景下，以国内外贸易发展带动经济增长的同时，亦会对环境污染产生重要影响，本文的研究重在探讨国内外贸易发展与环境污染之间的关系，尝试为我国贸易政策与环境政策的协调提供新的思路与证据。具体而言，本文通过改良并使用一个涵盖国际贸易、省际贸易与环境污染的理论模型分析三者的作用机制，并对国内外贸易发展与环境污染的关系进行实证检验。研究结果表明：由于产品多样性带来的替代效应大于收入效应与脱钩效应，国际贸易、省际贸易会同时促进进口国工业二氧化硫的排放，进而带来了环境污染问题；与此同时，由于我国省际贸易脱钩效应较弱，相比于国际贸易，其对环境污染的影响更为显著。因此，关于省际贸易、国际贸易与环境治理，我国贸易政策与环境政策应该做到真正的“顶层设计”，实现多部委政策联合制订与执行的国家治理体系构建。
关键词：双循环；国际贸易；省际贸易；环境效应
Abstract: In the context of international and domestic dual cycles, while the development of domestic and foreign trade drives economic growth, it will also have an important impact on environmental pollution. The research in this article focuses on exploring the relationship between the development of domestic and foreign trade and environmental pollution, and tries to help formulate the coordination of trade policy and environmental policy. Specifically, the research in this article analyzes its mechanism of action by improving and using a theoretical model covering international trade, inter-provincial trade and environmental pollution, and conducts an empirical test of the relationship between the development of domestic and foreign trade and environmental pollution. The research results show that the substitution effect brought about by product diversity is greater than the income effect and decoupling effect, international trade and inter-provincial trade will simultaneously promote the emission of industrial sulfur dioxide in importing countries, which in turn brings environmental pollution problems. At the same time, due to the decoupling effect of inter-provincial trade is weak, and its impact on environmental pollution is more significant than that of international trade. Therefore, with regard to inter-provincial trade, international trade and environmental governance, China’s trade and environmental policies should be truly top-level design to achieve the establishment of a national governance system in which multiple ministries and commissions jointly formulate and implement policies.
Keyword: Dual Circulation; International Trade; Inter-provincial Trade; Environmental Effects
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2021.02.008
基金项目：“研究阐释党的十九届四中全会精神”国家社会科学基金重点项目“自由贸易试验区负面清单制度的推广与评估”（20AZD050）、国家自然科学基金面上项目“竞争政策与准入规制的协调机制研究”（71773039）和广东省自然科学基金面上项目“粤港澳大湾区空气污染与公众健康：基于PM2.5数据的跨学科研究”（2020A1515011233）。
全文：
双循环背景下国内外贸易发展与环境污染：理论机制与经验证据.pdf