The Study on the Influential Factors of Air Quality in the Yangtze Ｒiver Economic Belt
Zuo Zhili，Guo Haixiang and Cheng Jinhua
摘要：长江经济带的空气质量问题是当前普遍关心的重要问题。本文利用2016年的年度数据和季度数据，结合探索性空间分析方法对长江经济带129个市州的空气质量状况进行刻画，并通过空间计量模型，深入分析长江经济带129个市州空气质量的影响因素；最后，运用k-means聚类方法，综合经济、人口、交通、能源等因素，将长江经济带划分成四个区域，并根据其大气污染状况，区分重点治理区域。研究结果表明:长江经济带空气质量状况呈现显著的空间正相关，且地区间空气质量状况分布呈现出高高聚集和低低聚集的两极分化，污染溢出效应显著；城镇化率、能源消费量和人口密度对空气质量均呈显著正向影响，汽车保有量对地区空气质量状况存在显著负向削减作用，并且邻近地区空气质量状况对本地区的影响更大。因此，区域大气污染防治离不开多方协作、共同治理，大气污染治理应充分考虑本地区经济发展特征和能源消费结构，分区施策、对症下药、精准治理。
关键词 ： AQI, 长江经济带, 空间相关性, 聚类分析
Abstract: The air quality of Yangtze Ｒiver Economic Belt ( YＲEB) is an important issue of current． This paper uses the cross－sectional data of 2016，combined with exploratory spatial data analysis methods to characterize the air quality of 129 cities and states in the YＲEB，and in－depth analysis of the influencing factors of the air quality with spatial econometric models． Finally，uses the k－means clustering method to integrate economic，population，transportation，energy and other factors，YＲEB is divided into three regions，the common but differentiated pollution control points of each region are distinguished according to its regional characteristics． The results show that the air quality of the YＲEB presents a significant spatial positive correlation，and the distribution of spatial quality between regions shows a high－high aggregation and low－low aggregation． The pollution spillover effect is significant; urbanization rate，energy consumption and population density has a significant positive impact on air quality，car ownership has a significant negative impact on regional air quality conditions，and air quality conditions in neighboring regions have a greater impact on the region． Therefore，the prevention and control of regional air pollution cannot be separated from multi－party cooperation and joint governance． Air pollution control should fully consider the economic development characteristics and energy consumption structure of the region，the policy of districts，and treat it precisely．
Keywords: AQI; Yangtze Ｒiver Economic Belt; Spatial Correlation; Clustering Analysis Method
基金资助:本文系国家社会科学基金项目“加快生态文明体制改革，建设美丽中国研究”（18VSJ037）、国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于数据驱动的滑坡地质灾害预测及其应急决策研究 ——以长江经济带三峡库区例”（71874165）、“长江经济带大气污染空间关联机理与协调发展”（CUGCJ1811）的研究成果。
DOI:10．19511/j．cnki．jee．2018．04．009