Modelling the Implementation of China’s Nationally Determined Contributions
Chai Qimin, Fu Sha and Wen Xinyuan
摘要：作为《巴黎协定》的核心机制，中国能否更好实施国家自主贡献受到国际 社会和国内利益相关者的广泛关注。本文基于国家自主贡献评估模型，对既有政 策、国家适当减缓行动和国家自主贡献三类情景下十五类政策和行动进行了分类 研究，量化评估了低碳能源政策、节能低碳产业政策、建筑和交通减排、增加碳汇等 措施对目标进展的贡献，识别了现有措施实施力度存在的差距和问题，提出了下一 阶段中国更高质量实施国家自主贡献的路线图和政策建议。实证研究结果表明： 中国在“十三五”时期所采取的政策措施力度，仅能保障实现到2030年单位GDP碳 排放相比于2005年下降60%~65%左右的目标，但CO2排放总量仍将保持缓速上升， 能否实现峰值目标仍存在不确定性，且非化石能源占一次能源消费的比重也仅能 达到18%左右，并不足以完全支撑自主贡献目标的实现。针对实施国家自主贡献 的要求和现有政策存在的问题，“十四五”时期应重点考虑实施路径的转变，从当前 “强度主导型”的政策体系过渡到 “峰值引领型”的碳排放总量管理制度体系。
关键词：巴黎协定；国家自主贡献；综合评估模型
Abstract: As the core mechanism under the Paris Agreement, whether China can better implement its Nationally Determined Contributions has been widely concerned by the international community and domestic stakeholders. Based on the NDCAM model, this paper classifies the fifteen policies and actions under the scenarios of current policies, National Appropriate Mitigation Actions and Nationally Determined Contributions, and quantitatively evaluates the contribution of low-carbon energy policy, other industrial policy, building and transport policy and carbon sinks measures, to evaluate the progress, gaps and challenges existing in the current implementation efforts, and puts forward the technology roadmap and policy recommendations for China's higher quality implementation of Nationally Determined Contributions in the next stage. The results of empirical research show that China's policies and measures adopted during the 13th Five-year Plan period can only guarantee the achievement of the target of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by about 60%~65% by 2030 compared with 2005. However, the total amount of CO2 emissions will continue to increase slowly, whether the peak target can be achieved is still uncertain, and the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption can only reach about 18%, which is not enough to fully support the achievement of the contribution goals. In view of the existing requirements and challenges, the transformation of implementation pathway should be taken into account in the period of the 14th Five-year Plan, and changes should be made from the current Intensity-oriented policy system into a Peak-led carbon emission cap control regime.
Keywords: Paris Agreement；Nationally Determined Contributions；Integrated Assessment Model
基金资助：本文系科技部国家重点研发计划“全球变化及应对”重点专项项目“国家碳减排自主贡献盘点方案设计及关 键科学问题研究”课题一“全球盘点方案的框架和制度设计”（2017YFA0605301），国家电网科技项目“全球能源 互联网发展差异化评估与碳减排贡献模型研究”的阶段性成果
DOI：10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2019.02.008