The Impact of China's Pilot Carbon Emissions Trading Systems on Low-carbon Technology Innovation: An Empirical Analysis of Pilot-covered Enterprises
Zhang Haijun, Duan Maosheng and Li Dongya
摘要：促进企业进行低碳创新是碳排放权交易体系即ETS的政策目标之一，也 是检验ETS效果的重要指标之一。本文通过对试点ETS纳入企业的调研，分析了企业对各类政策的感知与认识，并基于序次Probit回归模型分析了各类政策对纳入企 业低碳技术创新的影响。研究发现，试点ETS、国家和省级中长期碳减排目标两类 气候政策产生的政策压力居中，而大气污染防治政策和行政命令类节能政策对 企业决策的影响更大；在低碳技术创新中，企业引入低碳技术的水平也高于自主 研发的水平。计量模型分析表明，试点 ETS 并未能有效促进纳入企业的低碳技 术创新，而中长期碳减排目标则产生了积极的影响；行政命令类节能政策表现为 抑制了企业的低碳技术创新。另外，清洁能源价格与煤价、企业自身对科技创新 投资的热衷程度等内外部因素也对企业的低碳技术创新有显著影响。因此，为 促进企业的低碳技术创新，应加快推动 ETS 立法，增强市场参与者的长期稳定预期；同时，应加强节能减碳政策包的顶层设计，采取合并相近政策、终止部分冗 余政策等手段，减少政策重叠和冲突，促进不同政策之间的协同。
关键词：碳排放权交易体系；低碳技术创新；节能减碳
Abstract: Promoting low-carbon innovation is one of the core objectives of carbon emissions trading systems , it is therefore one of the vital criteria to assess the effectiveness of the pilot ETS. By conducting a survey on ETS-covered enterprises, this paper analyzes the perception and cognition of enterprises on various policies and the impacts of various policies on the low-carbon technology innovation of enterprises based on ordered Probit regressions. We find that the perceived pressures from the two types of climate policies, namely, pilot ETS, national and provincial medium-term and long-term carbon emission reduction targets, lie in the middle, while air pollution control policies and regulatory energy-saving policies have greater influence on enterprise decision-making. With regard to low-carbon technology innovation, the level of low-carbon technology adoption is higher than that of independent research and development. Econometric evidence suggests that pilot ETS have not effectively promoted low-carbon technology innovations of ETS-covered enterprises, while medium-term and long-term carbon emission reduction targets have had a positive impact. The regulatory energy-saving policies have suppressed the low-carbon technology innovation of enterprises. In addition, other factors such as changes in the ratio of clean energy prices to coal prices, perceived attention of the public on carbon emissions, and enterprise's enthusiasm for investment in science and technology innovation have a significant impact on enterprise's low-carbon technology innovations. Therefore, in order to promote low-carbon technological innovation of enterprises, the ETS legislation process should be accelerated in order to enhance the long-term stable expectations of market participants. The top-level design of energy-saving and carbon reduction policy packages should be optimized, including merging similar policies and terminating some redundant policies, so as to reduce overlaps and conflicts and to promote coordination among various policies.
Keywords: Carbon Emissions Trading System; Low-carbon Innovation; Energy-saving and Carbon Reduction
基金资助:本文系国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国碳排放权交易体系的评估与完善研究”（18ZDA107）和国家重点研
发计划下课题“我国重点行业温室气体排放监测及质量控制关键技术”（2018YFC1509004）的阶段性成果。
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2019.02.002