The Spatial-Industrial Transfer of Carbon Emissions Embodied in Inter-provincial Trade and the Influencing Factors for Shanxi Province: A MRIO-SDA Study
Liu Qingyan, Fang Kai and Cong Jianhui
摘要：国家减排目标的实现亟需省级地方政府加以分解落实。然而，省际间日益频繁的贸易活动使得各省区的消费碳排放与生产碳排放出现严重背离，可能影响各省区碳减排战略措施的制定与实施。本文选取典型的能源驱动型省份山西省为例，基于多区域投入产出模型，测算了 2002-2012年山西省与国内其他省市间贸易隐含的碳排放；在此基础上，采用结构分解分析方法识别了影响山西省贸易隐含碳排放转移的因素。结果表明：2002-2012年，山西省贸易隐含碳排放转移规模不断扩大，且为贸易隐含碳排放的“净调出”省份；山西省贸易隐含碳排放的空间分布呈现出由集聚式向扩散式发展的趋势；各影响因素对山西省贸易隐含碳排放转移的作用程度存在显著差异，其中，产业部门碳排放强度效应对碳排放转移的减少发挥着至关重要的作用，需求规模效应显著地增加了碳排放转移，其他因素则既可减少也会促进碳排放转移。基于研究结果，本文从建立健全省际产业转移协调机制、继续推动产业转型升级、鼓励省市间低碳产品贸易等方面提出山西省绿色低碳转型的政策建议。
关键词：二氧化碳排放；碳市场；局部均衡分析；配额价格；减排成本
Abstract:Provincial governments play an important role in decomposing and implementing national carbon reduc⁃ tion targets.However,the carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade lead to large differences between the consumption-based and production-based carbon emissions of each province,which seriously affect the policy mak⁃ ing of carbon emission reductions in various provinces.In this paper,Shanxi Province is selected as a typical energy resource-driven province,where a multi-regional input-output model is developed to calculate the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade between Shanxi Province and other Chinese provinces in2002, 2007 and 2012.Structural decomposition analysis method is employed to identify the contributing factors affecting the carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province.The results show that from 2002 to 2012,the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province grows continuously, and it is as a whole has been a "net export er"in inter-provincial trade.The geographical distribution of the carbon emission sembodied in trade in Shanxi Province shows a trend from agglomeration to diffusion.Various influencing factors on the transfer of carbon emissions embodied in inter-provincial trade of Shanxi Province present significant differences.Among them,the contributions of the carbon intensity of industrial sectors with respect to the reduction of carbon emissions transfer plays a crucial role,demand scale significantly increases the carbon transfer and other factors can reduce or promote carbon emissions.Based on the research results,this paper puts forward policy sugges⁃ tionsongreenandlow-carbontransformationofShanxiProvincefromtheaspectsofestablishingandperfectingcoor⁃ dination mechanism of inter-provincial industrial transfer,continuing to promote industrial transformation and upgrading,and encouraging inter-provincial trade of low-carbon products.
Keywords: Embodied Carbon Emissions;Multi-Regional Input-Output;Structural Decomposition Analysis
基金资助：本文系国家自然科学基金面上项目“不确定条件下低碳能源技术策略性投资建模与应用研究”（71673019） 和国家自然科学基金重大项目子课题“能源体系变革的规律与驱动机制研究”（71690245）的阶段性成果。
全文：
山西省贸易隐含碳排放的空间-产业转移及其影响因素研究.pdf
DOI：10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2019.02.004