The Calculation of Environmental Effects of Industrial Transfer in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
Zhang Youguo
摘要：长江经济带内各省市间极易形成产业转移并产生相应的环境影响，因此研究带内产业转移的环境效应具有重要意义。本文利用RAS测算得到2015年中国多区域投入产出表，基于多区域投入产出模型和对数均值指数方法提出了产业转移的环境效应测算及其分解分析框架，并对长江经济带区域间产业转移在2002-2015年及三个子阶段内的工业废水排放影响进行了实证研究。结果表明，在规模效应的主导下，上海、湖北、湖南、重庆、四川和贵州六省市转出的污染排放超过转入的污染排放，其余省份的情况则正好相反。除江西和湖南外，其余数省市产业转出的产业结构效应都导致工业废水排放减少。除贵州外，其余省市产业转入的产业结构也都有利于本地工业废水减排。大多数省市的产业转出地区结构效应不利于污染减排，但地区结构效应相对较小。产业转移在整个研究时期和各个子阶段内非常显著地减少了长江经济带整体的工业废水排放。因此，未来应根据长江经济带各省份的比较优势和环境承载力，通过有效的产业转移来优化产业格局，巩固产业转移的污染减排效应。
关键词：长江经济带；产业转移；环境效应；多区域投入产出模型；因素分解
Abstract: There is a high probability that industrial transfer among provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exsited, and producing corresponding environmental impact. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the environmental effects of industrial transfer in the zone. This paper uses RAS to get China's Multi-Regional Input-Output table and provides an analyzing framework for accounting and decomposing environmental effects of industrial transfer with the multi-regional input-output model and logarithmic mean Divisia index method and empirically studies the impact of industrial transfer on industrial waste water discharge in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2002-2015 and its three sub-periods. The results indicate that dominated by the scale effect, total emissions exported by Shanghai, Hubei, Hunan, Chongqing, Sichuan and Guizhou exceeded total emissions imported by these provinces, respectively, whereas the situations in the rest provinces were opposite to them. Excluding Jiangxi and Hunan, the industrial structural effects of industrial transfer-out in the rest provinces reduce waste water discharge. All the provincial industrial structural effects of industrial transfer-in were helpful for local waste water discharge reduction, except that of Guizhou. Most of the provincial regional structural effects of industrial transfer-out were not helpful for emissions reduction but the regional structural effects were relatively small. The industrial transfer substantially decreased the total waste water discharge in the Yangtze River Econimic Belt in the whole studied period and all the sub-periods. Therefore, in the future, according to the comparative advantages and environmental carrying capacity of the provinces in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, we should optimize the industrial structure through effective industrial transfer and consolidate the pollution reduction effect of industrial transfer.
Keywords: Yangtze River Economic Belt; Industrial Transfer; Environmental Effects; Multi-Regional Input-Output Model; Factor Decomposition
基金资助：本文系中国社会科学院登峰战略重点学科建设项目 “环境技术经济学”以及国家自然科学基金 “实现碳峰值与强 度目标的区域低碳发展路径协同优化研究”（71873143）的阶段性成果。
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2019.02.006