摘要：为探究新型城镇化和绿色低碳发展效率耦合协调关系，基于长江经济带108个地级以上城市2012—2021年的面板数据，构建新型城镇化指标体系计算各城市新型城镇化水平，采用EBM模型测算各城市绿色低碳发展效率，并利用耦合协调度模型、全局Moran’s I指数和Dagum基尼系数等方法分析和刻画新型城镇化和绿色低碳发展效率耦合协调度的时空演化和空间差异特征。结果表明：长江经济带新型城镇化水平逐年增长，绿色低碳发展效率波动较大；二者耦合协调度持续提高，空间上呈现“东高西低”和“中心外围”分布特征，有显著的空间正相关性，长三角城市群是热点地区；耦合协调度的区域异质性特征明显，呈现从上游到下游递减的格局，超变密度是差异的主要来源。基于上述结论，从促进新型城镇化均衡发展、提升绿色低碳发展效率和打造协同发展格局等方面提出了相应的对策建议，以期助力长江经济带新型城镇化和绿色发展的良性互动。
关键词：新型城镇化；绿色低碳发展；耦合协调度；长江经济带；EBM模型
The Coupling and Coordination of New Urbanization and Green Development Efficiency in the Yangtze River Economic Belt
Zhan Cheng , Feng Yin, Chen Jiahao, Cheng Penghong, Cheng Jinhua
Abstract: To explore the coupling and coordination relationship between new urbanization and green development efficiency, based on panel data from 108 prefecture level and above cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2012 to 2021, a new urbanization indicator system was constructed to calculate the level of new urbanization in each city. The EBM model was used to calculate the green development efficiency of each city, and the coupling coordination degree model, global Moran's I index, and Dagum Gini coefficient were used to analyze and characterize the spatiotemporal evolution and spatial differences of the coupling coordination degree between new urbanization and green development efficiency. The results show that the level of new urbanization in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has been increasing year by year, and the efficiency of green development fluctuates greatly. The degree of coupling and coordination between the two continues to improve, showing spatial distribution characteristics of high in the east and low in the west and central periphery, with a significant positive spatial correlation. The Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is a hot spot area. The regional differences in coupling coordination degree are significant, and the main source of the differences is the super variable density. Based on the above conclusions, policy recommendations are proposed from the perspective of adapting to local conditions and overall coordination, in order to help promote the positive interaction between new urbanization and green development in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
Keywords: New Urbanization; Green Development; Coupled Co-scheduling; Yangtze River Economic Belt; EBM
