The Impact of the Phase III Reform of European Union Emissions Trading System on Carbon Allowance Price
Qi Shaozhou and Wang Wei
摘要：欧盟碳排放权交易体系第三阶段改革成效显著，研究其关键改革政策对碳市场的影响，将为我国的碳市场建设提供一定的经验借鉴。本文选取了第三阶段三项主要改革政策——配额总量递减、折量拍卖、市场稳定储备机制作为评估对象，以第三阶段欧盟碳配额期货价格的日度数据为被解释变量，三大改革政策为解释变量，采用时间序列协整模型和向量误差修正模型对各因素的影响作出评估。研究结果表明，各项改革政策都与碳配额期货价格呈正向协整关系，通过改善市场供求失衡状况，有效推动了第三阶段碳价格的提高，对减排企业形成了长效的激励和约束，提高了欧盟碳排放权交易体系的运行效率。因此，我国在建立和完善碳排放权交易体系进程中，要根据本国情况合理设置配额总量和配额分配方式，设置配额柔性调整机制，不断提高市场流动性，促进碳价格的提高，保证碳排放权交易市场的稳定发展。
关键词：欧盟碳排放权交易体系；第三期改革；碳价格
Abstract: In December 2017, China officially started the carbon emission trading market with the power industry as the starting point, aiming to promote greenhouse gas emission reduction through the carbon emission trading system. However, in terms of system design, there are still many controversies. Reforms of the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System has achieved significant effectiveness. Studying the impact of its key reform measures on the carbon market will provide some experience for China's carbon market construction. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of the three main reform measures in the third phase, that are linear reduction of emission cap, Back-loading of auctions, Market Stability Reserve. Taking the daily data of the EU ETS allowances futures price in the third phase as the explained variable, the three major reform measures are explanatory variables. The time series cointegration model and vector error correction model are used to make a post-assessment on the impact of various factors. The results of the study show that the various reform measures have a positive co-integration relationship with the EU ETS allowances futures price. By improving the market imbalance between supply and demand, the carbon price in the third phase has been effectively raised, long-term incentives and constraints have been formed for covered enterprises. Therefore, in the process of establishing and developing the carbon emissions trading system, China should set the emission cap and design carbon allowance allocation methods reasonably according to China conditions, set up a flexible carbon allowance adjustment mechanism, continuously improve market liquidity, and thus ensure the stable development of the carbon emissions trading market.
Keywords: EU ETS; Phase III Reform; Carbon Allowance Price
基金资助：国家社会科学基金重大项目子课题“我国碳排放权交易体系的总量设定与配额分配方法评价与完善”（18ZDA107）和2018年国家重点研发计划“气候变化风险的全球治理与国内应对关键问题研究”课题5“我国重点行业与地区碳配额分配方法与能力建设”（2018YFC1509005）。
全文：
欧盟碳排放权交易体系第三阶段改革对碳价格的影响.pdf
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2020.01.001
引用本文.rar Cite This Article.rar