Impact of High Quality Development on Water ResourcesCarrying Capacity in the Yellow River Basin
Wang Xifengand Shen Dajun
摘要：黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展关系重大，事关中华民族伟大复兴。本文首先分析了高质量发展与水资源承载力的作用机制，然后利用黄河流域8个省份的投入产出表，构建分析高质量发展与水资源承载力的可比价混合型投入产出模型进行结构分解分析。研究发现，从黄河流域各个省份来看，经济增长和灌溉面积占比增加体现了水资源承载力的增加，也就是说水资源承载力在各个年份都有了很大程度的提高。分省份来看，水资源承载力从大到小依次为山东、河南、宁夏、甘肃、陕西、内蒙古、山西、青海。分年份来看，发现用水技术进步影响较大，但是产业结构在部分年份却朝着不利于水资源承载力的方向变化，这在山西、内蒙古、甘肃等能源基地省份表现更为明显。基于研究结论，本文的政策建议包括继续推动新一轮的技术革命，提高粮食、能源行业的全要素生产率，减少水资源的浪费，提高水资源利用效率。
关键词：高质量发展；水资源承载力；黄河流域
Abstract: The ecological protection and the high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin are closely relatedto the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. This paper first analyzes the mechanism of high-quality developmentand water resources carrying capacity, and then uses the input-output table of eight provinces in the Yellow River Basin to build a comparable-price hybrid input-output model to analyze high-quality development and water resourcescarrying capacity by structural decomposition analysis. It is found that from the perspective of each province in the
Yellow River Basin, the increase of economic growth and the proportion of irrigation area reflects the increase of waterresources carrying capacity, that is to say, the water resources carrying capacity has been greatly improved in eachyear. In terms of provinces, the water resources carrying capacity is in the order of Shandong, Henan, Ningxia, Gansu,Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Qinghai. In terms of years, it is found that the progress of water use technologyhas a great impact, but the economic structure changes in some years in the direction that is not conducive to the water resources carrying capacity, which is more obvious in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Gansu. Based on the research conclusion, the policy recommendations of this paper include continuing to promote a new round of technological revolution, improving the total factor productivity of food and energy industries, reducing the waste of water resources, andimproving the efficiency of water resources utilization.
Keywords：High Quality Development; Water Resources Carrying Capacity; Yellow River Basin
基金项目：国家重点研发计划“‘水-能源-粮食’协同安全保障关键技术”（2017YFC0404603）
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2019.04.004
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