摘要：在不断攀升的能源消费需求与碳减排约束日益矛盾的现状下，如何通过能源消费清洁化，或是利用清洁能源替代非清洁能源以促进碳减排是社会各界面临的难题。本文基于2012—2019年中国30个省市的面板数据，采用似不相关回归方法估计了清洁能源与非清洁能源的Cross-price Elasticity（CPE）和Morishima Elasticity（MES）弹性，同时在清洁能源与非清洁能源可替代性的基础上，利用碳夹点方法预测碳减排约束下“十四五”期末的中国最优清洁能源量。主要研究结论如下：（1）清洁能源与非清洁能源的自价格弹性较低，整体缺乏弹性；（2）清洁能源与非清洁能源的CPE替代弹性和MES替代弹性均为正数，总体来看清洁能源与非清洁能源之间呈现替代关系，但是替代强弱存在差异；（3）分地区来看，西部地区的非清洁能源自价格弹性绝对值与东中部地区相比差距较大，此外三个地区的清洁能源与非清洁能源均存在替代关系，替代程度从东中西依次减弱；（4）不同资源禀赋地区的替代弹性存在异质性；在资源型地区，非清洁能源替代清洁能源的替代弹性较小，非资源型地区相反；（5）中国2020年清洁能源消费量为12.10亿吨标准煤，占据能源总量的 23.4%，折合为 3546.56 万 TJ，距离实现 2025 年单位 GDP 碳排放下降18%的目标，还需要再增加3076.84~3369.77万TJ。（6）机制分析发现，能源间替代可以通过能源价格以及有偏技术进步实现碳减排。本研究为政策制定者制定相关能源政策提供了有益参考。
关键词：清洁能源；非清洁能源；MES替代弹性；碳夹点；碳减排
Estimation of Substitution Elasticity and Structural Optimization of Clean and Non-clean Energy in China
Abstract: Under the current situation of increasing energy consumption demand and the increasingly contradictorycarbon emission reduction constraints, how to promote carbon emission reduction through clean energy consumptionor the use of clean energy to replace non-clean energy is a difficult problem faced by all sectors of society. Based onthe panel data of 30 provinces and municipalities in China from 2012 to 2019, this paper estimates the cross-priceelasticity and Morishima substitution elasticity between clean energy and non-clean energy using the seemingly uncorrelated regression method, and then uses the carbon emission pinch analysis to predict the optimal amount of cleanenergy in China until the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan period under the emission constraints. The main researchconclusions are as follows. The self-price elasticity of clean energy and non-clean energy is low, and the overall elasticity is inelastic. The cross-price elasticity of clean energy and non-clean energy is positive, so clean energy andnon-clean energy are substitutive, but there are differences in the degree of substitution. In terms of sub-regions,there is regional heterogeneity in the substitution elasticity between clean energy and non-clean energy in the eastern,central and western regions, but also in different resource endowment areas. China's 2020 clean energy consumptionis 1.210 billion tons of standard coal, accounting for 23.4% of the total energy, equivalent to 3546.56 trillion joules.To achieve the goal of reducing carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 18% in 2025, an additional 3076.84 to 3369.77trillion joules are needed. Mechanism analysis found that inter-energy substitution can achieve carbon emission reduction through energy prices and biased technological progress. This study provides a useful reference for policymakers to formulate relevant energy policies.
Keywords: Clean Energy; Dirty Energy; MES Substitution Elasticity; Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis; Carbon Reduction
