Climate Policy Uncertainty and Investors' Green Attention: Transmission Mechanism and Economic Impact
Liu Desheng, Xie Yina
摘要：在气候风险加剧和极端天气频发背景下，政府希望通过气候政策规范和引导利益相关者行为，但这可能导致气候政策不确定性增加。投资者作为资本市场重要参与者，势必会受到气候政策不确定性的影响，但关于气候政策不确定性和投资者绿色关注的关系缺乏深入的研究。为此，本文以A股上市公司为样本，基于“e 互动”“互动易”两大平台的投资者问答数据，实证检验气候政策不确定性与投资者绿色关注的关系。研究结果表明，气候政策不确定性会显著提高投资者绿色关注并且该结论通过了一系列稳健性检验。机制检验发现，气候政策不确定性通过影响企业债务风险和企业投资，引发投资者绿色关注。此外，气候政策不确定性对投资者绿色关注的影响程度在国有企业、高污染企业、高成长性企业、气候适应型城市的企业更明显。进一步研究发现，气候政策不确定性对投资者绿色关注的影响还会造成增发现金股利的经济后果。本文为气候政策不确定性研究提供新视角，也为政府通过气候政策来引导投资者行为提供了新证据。
关键词：气候政策不确定性；投资者绿色关注；债务风险；企业投资
Abstract: In the context of heightened climate risks and frequent occurrence of extreme weather, the government hopes to regulate and guide stakeholder behavior through climate policy, but it may give rise to increased climate policy uncertainty. Investors, as important participants in capital markets, are inevitably affected by climate policy uncertainty, but there is a lack of valid evidence on the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and investors' green concerns. To this end, this paper takes A-share listed companies as samples, and empirically examines the relationship between climate policy uncertainty and investors' Green Attention based on investor Q&A data from the E-interactive platform of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Easy Interactive platform of Shenzhen Stock Exchange. The findings suggest that climate policy uncertainty significantly increases investors' Green Attention, a conclusion supported by the results of a series of robustness tests. Mechanism tests find that climate policy uncertainty triggers green investor concerns by affecting corporate debt risk and business investment. In addition, the extent to which climate policy uncertainty affects investors' Green Attention is more pronounced in SOEs, high-polluting firms, high-growth firms, and firms in climate-adaptive cities. Further, the impact of climate policy uncertainty on investors' Green Attention can also have economic consequences in the form of additional cash dividends. This paper provides new perspectives on the study of climate policy uncertainty and new evidence for steering investor behavior through climate policy.
Keywords: Climate Policy Uncertainty; Investor Green Attention; Debt Risk; Business Investment
基金资助：山东省社会科学规划重大理论和现实问题协同创新研究专项项目“数字化变革推动山东民营经济高质量发展研究”（23CCXJ03），泰山学者工程专项经费资助（tsqn202306253）。
