Dynamic Impact and Welfare Analysis of HeterogeneousTechnology Shocks on Pollution and Carbon ReductionSynergies
Gan Tianqi, Zhou Zongyu, Zhang Kangning, Shen Renjun
摘要：加速推进减污降碳协同增效是落实新发展阶段生态文明建设的根本要求，是促进环境保护和经济发展的协同共进、提高资源利用效率、推动经济转型升级的重要抓手。本文构建了一个包含五部门的封闭经济一般均衡模型，模拟在总量控制、碳税、目标强度三种不同环境政策情景下，中国宏观经济和生态环境质量对生产技术、政策强度、减排创新技术冲击的动态效应，并构建社会福利函数，对比了不同冲击下，降碳减污政策对中国居民福利损失的差异。研究结果表明：在中国增加适当强度的环境政策可以达到协同增效的目的，表现为经济增长、大气污染物下降和碳储量持续降低，同时“降碳”效应优于“减污”效应。总量控制情景下经济产出应对外生冲击的表现更好，碳税政策情景下降碳减污的协同效应更为显著。在总量控制情景下，最终品生产技术冲击对能源消费市场产生结构效应，而在碳税和目标强度两种政策情景下的结构效应并不明显。通过社会福利函数考察居民在三种政策情景下的社会福利水平，三种政策情景社会福利由高到低依次为：总量控制、目标强度、碳税政策。基于研究结论，本文建议现有环境治理体系应从“分而治之”向“合而治之”转变，环境治理政策应从“硬约束”向“软激励”转变，环境治理手段应从“末端治理”向“源头管控”转变。
关键词：降碳减污；协同增效；DSGE模型；政策模拟；福利分析
Abstract: Accelerating the synergy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction is a fundamental requirement for implementing the construction of ecological civilization in the new development stage, and it is an important tool for promoting the synergy of environmental protection and economic development, improving the efficiency of resource utilization, and promoting economic transformation and upgrading. This paper constructs a closed economy general equilibrium model with five sectors to simulate the dynamic effects of China's macroeconomic and ecological environmentquality on the shocks of production technology, policy intensity, and emission reduction innovation technology underthree different environmental policy scenarios: total control, carbon tax, and target intensity, and constructs a socialwelfare function to compare the differences in the welfare loss of Chinese residents under different shocks of the policy of pollution reduction and carbon reduction. The results of the study show that: increasing the appropriate intensityof environmental policies in China can achieve synergistic efficiency, which is manifested in economic growth, declining air pollutants and decreasing carbon stocks, and the“carbon reduction”effect is better than the“pollution reduction”effect. The effect of“carbon reduction”is better than the effect of“pollution reduction”. Under the aggregatecontrol scenario, economic output responds better to exogenous shocks, and the synergistic effect of pollution reduction and carbon reduction is more significant under the carbon tax policy scenario. In the aggregate control scenario,final goods production technology shocks have a structural effect on the energy consumption market, while the structural effect is not obvious in the carbon tax and target intensity policy scenarios. The social welfare function examinesthe level of social welfare of residents under the three policy scenarios, and the social welfare of the three policy scenarios, in descending order, is as follows: total control, target intensity, and carbon tax policy. Based on the conclusions of the study, this paper suggests that the existing environmental governance system should be changed from“divide and rule”to“combine and rule”, and the environmental governance policy should be changed from“hard constraints”to“soft incentives”, and the environmental governance policy should be changed from“hard constraints" to“soft incentives”. Environmental governance policies should be changed from“hard constraints”to“soft incentives”,and environmental governance means should be changed from“end-of-pipe”to“source control”.
Keywords: Carbon Reduction and Pollution Reduction; Synergistic Efficiency Enhancement; DSGE Model; PolicySimulation; Benefits Analysis
基金资助：国家自然科学基金面上项目“环境规制、绿色创新方向与工业污染防治：基于中国企业数据的研究”（72073049）、教育部人文社会科学青年项目“全过程视角下企业数字化转型的减污降碳协同效应研究”（24YJC790042）和中央高校基金项目“投资者偏好视角下绿色金融的减碳效应研究”（CSQ24025）。
全文：
异质性技术冲击对降碳减污协同增效的动态影响与福利分析.pdf