The Impact of Price Volatility of Mining Products on China’s Economy with Imperfect Price Transmission
Chen ZhanMing, Lu Yiya and Zhao Rongjian
摘要：分析矿产品价格变动对中国一般物价水平的影响，对中国未来应对外生矿产资源价格冲击并保持经济稳定增长具有重要意义。为了充分考虑价格传导黏性造成的影响，本研究利用2000-2014年数据计算了中国47个经济部门的年平均成本传导能力指数，进而构建投入产出价格实际影响模型模拟不同规制情境下中国各部门产出价格、生产者价格指数（PPI）以及消费者价格指数（CPI）对矿产品价格冲击的反应。结果表明，我国三大产业的成本传导能力由大到小分别为第三产业、第一产业和第二产业。第二产业中，运输设备制造业有最强的成本传导能力，而轻工制造业部门的成本传导能力最小；在第三产业中，和工作生活沟通密切相关的部门具有相对更强的成本传导能力。在矿产品价格冲击下，PPI的波动总是大于CPI，说明矿产品价格变动传导过程中被生产者吸收的程度大于消费者，即企业在矿产品价格冲击传导过程中起到了重要的缓冲作用。从价格管制政策的效果看，管制措施能有效抑制矿产品价格上涨带来的通胀压力，油价管制效果强于电价管制。本研究对我国关键部门的产业政策设计提供了依据。
关键词：不完全价格传导；投入产出模型；价格管制；矿产业
Abstract：Analyzing how the mining products price affects Chinese macroeconomy is of great significance for China to cope with external mineral price shock and maintain steady economic growth. In order to further consider the sticky problem in the price transmission, this paper first calculates the Annual Average Capability of Transmitting Cost (AACTC) of 47 sectors in China based on 2000-2014 data. And then the input-output price actual impact model is constructed to simulate how Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) would respond to the mining products price shock under different price regulation scenarios. Results show that the cost transmission capabilities of China's three industries are tertiary industry, primary industry and secondary industry in descending order. In the secondary industry, sectors about transportation equipment manufacturing have greater abilities to resist cost changes, while the light manufacturing sectors are difficult to transfer their cost-rising pressure. In the tertiary industry, sectors with high-relation to communication in terms of job or life have relatively greater abilities in cost transmission. Under the price shock of mining products, the volatility of PPI is always greater than that of CPI, implying that the price shock on mining and quarrying would be absorbed more by producers than consumers, that is, enterprises can play an important role in cushioning the price shock of mineral products. From the effects of price-control policies, strong price-control policies can effectively restrain the inflation, and the effect of price control on the refining sector is stronger than that on the power sector. This study provides inspirations for the industrial policy of China’s key sectors.
基金资助：本文系北京市自然科学基金面上项目“北京市居民能源消费的影响因素与管理政策研究”（9192012）及中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助的中国人民大学科学研究基金项目“基于消费者责任视角的能源消耗与温室气体排放研究”(14XNJ011)的阶段性成果。
全文：
不完全价格传导下矿产品价格冲击对中国一般物价水平的影响.pdf