Impact of First-level Response to COVID-19 on the
Reduction of Urban Air Pollutants in China
Wu Libo, Ren Feizhou and Xu Shaodan
摘要：新冠肺炎疫情的暴发对生产生活模式产生了重大影响，全面评估其对社会福利的影响至关重要。我国各省市启动突发公共卫生事件一级响应机制，由此带来的生产和出行活动强度变化产生了显著的环境污染物减排效应。本文基于我国289个地级市层级日度空气污染数据，使用断点回归方法识别了一级响应政策对城市空气污染的影响。研究表明，一级响应政策下城市平均空气质量指数下降了36%，通过稳健性检验和安慰剂检验结果依然一致。并且上述政策的环境效应存在城市异质性：流程式生产型企业分布集中的城市空气污染下降的幅度较小，而道路更为密集的城市空气污染下降的幅度则较大。本文的研究结论启示不同城市在进行减排工作时应有所侧重，长期看，需在流程式生产行业推广更先进的过程减排技术，同时在交通部门推广新能源汽车和公共交通。
关键词：新冠肺炎疫情；断点回归；空气污染；异质性局部平均处理效应
Abstract: COVID-19 profoundly changed the firm production and residents' daily life in China. A comprehensive assessment for COVID-19's impact is essential for welfare loss estimation. Under the epidemic situation, all regions in China adopted the first-level response to major public health emergency, aiming at limiting residents' travel and public gathering, which might reduce pollutions. Using prefecture-level daily air pollution data and Regression Discontinuity Design, we investigate the impact of control policy on city air pollution. It is found that the average Air Quality Index decreases by 36% under the First-level Response to Major Public Health Emergency. Furthermore, there exist city heterogeneity in the treatment effect. Cities with more process type production firms were less affected by the policy, while those with higher road intensity decreases their air pollution by a larger proportion. The conclusions suggest the necessity on considering city heterogeneity in future environmental policy making. In the long run, the government should focus on improving advanced emission reduction technologies in process manufacturing, and promoting new energy automobile and public transit in the transportation sector.
Keywords: COVID-19; Regression Discontinuity Design; Air Pollution; Heterogeneous Local Average Treatment Effect
基金资助：本文系国家杰出青年科学基金项目“能源环境经济与政策分析”（71925010）的阶段性成果。
全文：
新冠肺炎疫情防控一级响应对城市空气污染物减排的影响.pdf