The Effect of Aging on Carbon Emission Reduction
Li Gang
摘要：人口老龄化与全球气候变化愈来愈成为当今世界的两大难题，科学认识二者之间的关系有利于可持续发展的理论建设。本文基于世界银行公开数据库中关于198个国家或地区的面板数据，建立了面板门限模型，检验了人口老龄化对碳排放的门限效应。本文发现人口老龄化对碳排放的减排效应普遍存在；进一步，采用PSM-DID模型，检验了结论的稳健性；再进一步，应用中介效应分析，发现人口老龄化通过经济阻碍效应、技术进步效应、产业结构效应三大效应促进碳减排。最后，本文提出如下政策启示：人口老龄化为应对气候变化起到缓冲作用；处理环保与发展关系时要注重其前提条件应是发展；在低碳经济发展中尤其要鼓励、倡导技术创新及产业结构升级。
关键词：人口老龄化；碳减排；面板门限模型；PSM-DID；中介效应
Abstract: Aging and global climate changing are becoming two major problems in today's world. To understand the relationship between them scientifically is the basic work of sustainable development. Based on the panel data of 198 countries and regions in the world bank open database, to test the threshold effect of aging on carbon emission, this paper establishes the panel threshold model and finds that the effect of aging on carbon emission reduction is universal. Then, PSM-DID model is used to test the robustness of the conclusion. Moreover, applying mechanism analysis, it is found that aging promotes carbon emission reduction through three major effects: economic hindrance effect, technological progress effect and industrial structure effect. Finally, this paper puts forward the following policy implications, such as aging would act as a buffer against climate change. When dealing with the relationship between environmental protection and economic development, we should pay attention to their precondition of development. In the development of low-carbon economy, we should especially encourage and advocate technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading.
Keywords: Aging; Carbon Emission; Panel Threshold Model; PSM-DID; Intermediate Effect
基金资助：上海哲学社会科学项目建国70周年系列研究“70年人口迁移与发展”（2017BHB017）。
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2020.02.005