Has the Opening of the High-speed Railway Improved Air Quality?An Empirical Analysis Based on Regression Discontinuity Design
Qin Zhilong andChen Xiaoguang
摘要：我国城市空气污染问题严峻，高速铁路作为城市间的重要交通工具对空气污染的改善至关重要。本文使用国家生态环境部2011年的空气污染日值数据，采用断点回归的研究方法考察了2011年6月30日开通的京沪高铁对途经城市空气质量的影响。结果表明，京沪高铁的开通显著地改善了途经城市的空气质量。在改变断点回归的时间窗口和多项式阶次后，京沪高铁开通对空气质量的改善作用仍然稳健。此外，我们根据高铁与其他交通工具出行费用的比较，发现京沪高铁开通改善沿线城市空气质量的主要渠道可能包括替代私家车出行、减少航空出行需求及减少高能耗普通列车车次。本文的研究发现为我国政府大力发展高速铁路的政策提供了有力支撑。
关键词：京沪高铁；空气污染；断点回归设计；渠道分析
Abstract：China’s urban air pollution problem is serious. As an important means of transportation between cities，high-speed railway is crucial to improve air quality. Using the daily air pollution data of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China in 2011 and the regression discontinuity design, we investigate the impact of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail which opened on June 30, 2011 on the air quality of passing cities. The results show that the opening of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail has significantly improved the air quality of the passing cities. After changing the time window and polynomial order of the regression discontinuity design, the effect of the opening of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail remains robust. Furthermore, based on the comparison of travel costs between high-speed rail and other means of transportation, we find that the main channels of Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail to improve air quality of passing cities may include the replacement of private cars travel, reducing the demand for air travel and reducing the number of high-energy ordinary trains. In summary, this paper provides strong support to the government’s policy on developing high-speed rail.
Keywords:High-speed Railway;Air Pollution;Regression Discontinuity Design;Channel Analysis
基金资助：国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目“气候变化的影响及适应性策略研究”（71822302）和国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国农村生物质能供给潜力及生物质能发电对节能减排和能源安全的影响研究”（71673224）。
全文：
高铁开通改善了沿线城市的空气质量吗？——基于断点回归设计的分析.pdf
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2020.02.006