摘要：“无废城市”建设是提升生态文明、建设美丽中国的重要举措。本文利用2014—2022年中国274个地级市面板数据，通过IPCC推荐模型估算出MSW的填埋和焚烧碳排放量，以“无废城市”建设为准自然实验，系统评估试点政策的碳减排效应。结果表明，“无废城市”建设既能够降低城市生活垃圾卫生填埋的碳排放，又能够抑制焚烧处理的碳排放，具备显著的碳减排效应。机制检验显示，技术创新效应和邻避效应是试点政策实现填埋和焚烧碳减排的重要传导路径。异质性分析发现，“无废城市”建设对填埋和焚烧碳排放的影响存在显著的“东热西冷”地理区位特征，且碳减排效应在非直辖市、非省会城市以及绿色、数字和科技环境更优的城市更为突出。拓展性分析表明，“无废城市”建设可以实现单边减污效应和减污降碳协同效应。此外，试点政策的空间溢出存在显著异质性，即带动了邻近城市实现了焚烧碳减排，而对周边城市的填埋碳减排的促进效果并不显著。研究结论为形成我国固体废物管理的可持续发展模式，以及完善治污工具多样性、协同减排机制等提供有益借鉴。
关键词：城市生活垃圾；碳排放；无废城市；垃圾焚烧；垃圾填埋；邻避效应
The Carbon Reduction Path of Urban Solid Waste Landfill and Incineration：A Case Study of the“Zero-Waste City” Initiative
Wang Sufeng, Pan Jianglong
Abstract: The“Zero-Waste City”initiative is a crucial measure for advancing ecological civilization and building a Beautiful China.This study employs panel data from 274 prefecture-level cities in China (2014—2022) and utilizes the IPCC recommended model to estimate carbon emissions from municipal solid waste (MSW) landfill and incineration. By treating the“Zero-Waste City”policy as a quasi-natural experiment, we systematically evaluate its carbon reduction effects. The results demonstrate that the initiative significantly reduces emissions from both sanitary landfill and incineration. Mechanism analysis reveals that technological innovation and the“Not-In-My-Backyard”(NIMBY) effect are key pathways through which the policy achieves carbon mitigation. Heterogeneity analysis indicates distinct geographical disparities, with stronger carbon reduction effects observed in eastern regions compared to western ones. Moreover, the policy exhibits more pronounced impacts in non-provincial-capital cities and those with superior green, digital, and technological infrastructure. Extended analysis suggests that the“Zero-Waste City” initiative not only achieves unilateral pollution reduction but also fosters synergistic effects in pollution control and carbon mitigation. Additionally, the policy demonstrates spatially heterogeneous spillover effects—boosting incineration-based carbon reduction in neighboring cities while exerting limited influence on landfill-related emissions. These findings provide valuable insights for shaping sustainable solid waste management models in China, enhancing pollution control tool diversity, and optimizing collaborative emission reduction mechanisms.
Keywords: MSW; Carbon Emissions; Zero-Waste City; Waste Incineration; Waste Landfill; NIMBY Effect
