诸思齐 蔡晶晶
Does Pre-announced Emission Reduction Policies Lead to Green Paradox? An Empirical Study Based on EU ETS
Zhu Siqi and Cai Jingjing
摘要：绿色悖论指出，有时政府雄心勃勃的减排政策，反而可能因为前瞻性生产者的动态供给侧反应，对温室气体排放造成适得其反的效果。本文利用欧洲各国加入碳排放交易体系的时间差异，采用双重差分模型对比了过渡期间欧盟15国和其他国家化石燃料占比和二氧化碳排放量变化的差异。回归结果表明，相比公告前，公告后欧盟15国的化石燃料占总能源百分比相对其他欧洲国家平均上升2.116%，化石燃料碳排放量相对增加1002万吨，为绿色悖论的存在提供了支持性证据。由此提醒环境政策制定者对需求侧和供给侧的反应进行系统性的考虑，有意识地结合其他政策工具，抑制绿色悖论产生的负面效应。
关键词：绿色悖论；欧盟碳排放交易体系；双重差分；减排政策
Abstract: Green Paradox points out that sometimes government policies to reduce emissions can backfire on greenhouse gas emissions because of dynamic supply-side responses from forward-looking producers. In this paper, we compare the differences in the fossil fuel share and carbon dioxide emissions between EU15 and other countries during the transition period by using a difference-in-difference model based on the time difference between European countries joining the ETS. The regression results show that the share of fossil fuels in gross available energy increased by 2.116% on average compared with other European countries after the announcement of Directive Proposal in 2001, and carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels increased by 10.02 million tons, providing supporting evidence for the existence of weak green paradox. This reminds policy makers to systematically consider the supply-side and demand-side responses and consciously combine policy tools to curb the negative effects of the green paradox.
Keywords: Green Paradox; EU ETS; Difference-in-difference; Emission Reduction Policy
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“基于社会规范与行为视角的生态系统服务付费：理论，实验与应用”（71774136），教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“社会-生态耦合视角下生态系统服务付费的机制设计与有效性评估”（17YJA630003）。
