杜雯翠 张晓旋
Test of the Effect and Mechanism of Environmental Regulation on Labor Demand: A Quasi Natural Experiment from Paper Industry in Shandong Province
Du Wencui and Zhang Xiaoxuan
摘要：环境规制是否会抑制劳动需求，现有研究尚无定论。造纸业是制造业中的高污染排放行业，也是近些年来环境规制力度不断加强的重点减排行业。本文以2003年山东省发布的《山东省造纸工业水污染排放物标准》作为外生政策，以全国28个省份927家造纸企业为样本，基于2001—2007年中国工业企业数据库，运用倾向性匹配倍差法评估这一政策对造纸企业劳动需求的影响。研究发现，政策出台显著减少了山东省造纸企业的劳动需求，环境规制对劳动需求的这种负面冲击主要体现在对非国有企业的影响上，对国有企业的影响不大。机制检验表明，环境规制对劳动需求的抑制作用主要通过替代效应，而不是需求效应实现的，即《标准》的出台迫使企业增加资本和技术投入，替代了大量的普通劳动力。因此，应当理性看待环境规制对劳动需求的短期抑制，通过精准化、阶段化、结构化环境规制和配套措施的制定与实施，实现环境治理与就业稳定的“双重红利”。
关键词：环境规制；劳动需求；造纸业；PSM-DID
Abstract: Whether environmental regulations will inhibit labor demand, existing research is still inconclusive. As a high-pollution emission industry in the manufacturing industry, the paper industry is also a key emission reduction industry that has continuously strengthened environmental regulations in recent years. Taking “Shandong Paper Industry Water Pollution Discharge Standard” which issued by Shandong province in 2003 as a exogenous policy, using 927 paper-making companies in 28 provinces during 2001—2007 as a sample, this paper uses PSM-DID method to investigate the effect of the environmental regulation on the labor demand of paper-making enterprises. The results show that the environmental regulation has significantly reduced the labor demand of paper companies in Shandong Province, and the negative impact of environmental regulations on labor demand is much significant in non-state-owned enterprises, little impact on state-owned enterprises. The mechanism test shows that the inhibiting effect of environmental regulation on labor demand is mainly realized through substitution effect, rather than demand effect, that is, the Standard in Shandong province forces enterprises to increase capital and technical input to replace a large number of ordinary labor force. Thus, the short-term suppression of labor demand caused by environmental regulations should be treated rationally. The “double dividends” between environmental protection and employment can be obtained through the formulation and implementation of precise, phased and structured environmental regulations and supporting measures.
Keywords: Environmental Regulation; Labor Demand; Paper Industry; PSM-DID
基金项目：国家自然科学基金青年项目“不同企业生命周期下环境行政处罚的治理效应研究：微观机制与政策选择”（72003131）、教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“混改背景下企业环境行为的异化选择与微观机理研究”（20YJA790009）、首都经济贸易大学北京市属高校基本科研业务费专项资金（QNT202006）。
