摘要：在“能耗双控”向“碳排放双控”制度转型的关键阶段，科学、公平地分配与评估省域碳排放总量与强度的“双控”目标责任，对于实现“双碳”战略目标具有重要意义。本文构建基于价值链利益共担的碳排放“双控”目标责任分配框架，利用多区域投入产出模型，依次设定共担因子、划分碳排放总量与强度责任，并据此建立“双控”目标完成指数，系统分配中国省份“双控”目标责任并评价其完成情况。主要结论包括：区域间贸易利益分配趋于均衡，反映出国内价值链分工新特征——内蒙古等价值链上游资源型省份的责任共担因子较高但呈下降趋势，而广东等价值链下游综合发展型省份共担因子较低但持续上升。在共担原则下，山东等工业主导型省份碳排放责任划分结果介于生产者与消费者责任原则之间，更符合经济活动实际受益分布；资源型省份碳强度受本地生产过程与对外贸易隐含排放强度的共同驱动，而综合发展型省份则主要受流入贸易隐含排放强度的影响。责任共担原则更公平地了反映各省份“双控”目标完成绩效，显著优化了工业主导型与资源型省份考核压力，并提升了对综合发展型省份考核合理性。本研究为“十五五”期间我国构建科学、公平的省域碳排放“双控”责任分配制度提供了理论依据与实践参考。
关键词：碳排放“双控”；目标责任分配；价值链利益共担；碳排放“双控”目标完成指数；多区域投入产出分析
The Allocation of Provincial Carbon Emission “Dual-Control” Target Responsibilities in China Based on Value-Chain Benefit Sharing
Yan Junna, Gao Jingwei, Zhou Xiaoyong, Lin Tao
Abstract：At the critical stage of China’s institutional transition from the “dual control” of energy consumption to the “dual control” of carbon emissions, the scientific and equitable allocation and assessment of provincial responsibilities for controlling both the total volume and intensity of carbon emissions are of great significance for achieving the national “dual-carbon” strategic goals. This study develops a responsibility allocation framework for carbon emissions “dual-control” targets based on value-chain benefit sharing. Using a multi-regional input–output model, we sequentially define benefit-sharing coefficients, allocate responsibilities for total carbon emissions and carbon intensity, and construct a “dual-control” target completion index, thereby systematically assigning and evaluating provincial “dual-control” responsibilities in China. The main findings are as follows. First, the interregional distribution of trade benefits has become increasingly balanced, revealing new features of domestic value-chain specialization: upstream, resource-based provinces such as Inner Mongolia exhibit relatively high but declining benefit-sharing coefficients, whereas downstream, comprehensive-development provinces such as Guangdong display lower but steadily rising coefficients. Second, under the benefit-sharing principle, the allocation of carbon emission responsibilities in industrial-led provinces such as Shandong lies between the producer-responsibility and consumer-responsibility principles, more closely reflecting the actual distribution of economic benefits. Third, carbon intensity in resource-based provinces is jointly driven by local production processes and the emissions embodied in outbound trade, while in comprehensive-development provinces it is mainly influenced by emissions embodied in inbound trade. Finally, the benefit-sharing principle provides a fairer reflection of provincial performance in achieving “dual-control” targets, significantly alleviating assessment pressure on industrial-led and resource-based provinces while enhancing the rationality of evaluations for comprehensive-development provinces. This study provides theoretical support and practical insights for establishing a scientific and equitable provincial responsibility allocation system for carbon emissions “dual-control” during China’s 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Keywords：Carbon Emissions Dual Control; Responsibility Allocation; Value Chain Benefit Sharing; Carbon Dual-Control Completion Index; Multi-Regional Input–Output Analysis
