摘要：在“双碳”目标与高水平对外开放战略协同推进的关键期，国内气候关注如何影响本国工业企业的全球化战略，已成为兼具理论前沿性与现实紧迫性的重要议题。本文基于2003—2022年中国A股工业上市企业数据，实证检验气候关注对中国工业企业跨国投资决策的影响及机制。研究发现，气候关注会显著驱动工业企业扩大跨国投资规模。其作用渠道主要体现为：气候关注强化了企业对转型风险的预期，提高了绿色合规与调整成本，从而驱动企业通过跨国投资优化资源配置。异质性分析显示，该效应在非碳排放权交易试点地区、高碳排放及高风险承担水平的企业中更为明显。本文构建了气候关注影响工业企业跨国投资决策的微观分析框架，为在“双碳”目标下统筹产业链安全与绿色转型提供了理论依据与实证支撑。
关键词：气候关注；跨国投资；转型风险；合规成本；异质性分析
How Does Climate Attention Affect the Cross-Border Investment Decisions of Chinese Industrial Enterprises?
Zhang Caiping，Cheng Peipei
Abstract: During the critical period when the “dual carbon” goals and the high-standard opening up strategy are being advanced in tandem, how domestic climate attention influences the global strategies of Chinese industrial enterprises has become an issue of both theoretical frontier and practical urgency. Based on data of China's A-share listed industrial companies from 2003 to 2022, this paper empirically examines the impact and mechanisms of climate attention on the cross-border investment decisions of Chinese industrial enterprises. The study finds that climate attention significantly drives industrial enterprises to expand the scale of cross-border investment. The underlying channels primarily manifest as follows: climate attention strengthens enterprises' expectations of transition risks, increases green compliance and adjustment costs, thereby motivating enterprises to optimize resource allocation through cross-border investment. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that this effect is more pronounced in non-carbon trading pilot regions, as well as among enterprises with high carbon emissions and high risk-taking levels. This paper constructs a micro-level analytical framework for understanding how climate attention influences the cross-border investment decisions of industrial enterprises, providing a theoretical basis and empirical support for coordinating industrial chain security and green transformation under the dual carbon goals.
Keywords: Climate Attention; Cross-Border Investment; Transition Risk; Compliance Costs; Heterogeneity Analysis
