Factor Substitution, Technological Progress Bias and Carbon Productivity Growth
Sun Meng
摘要：提高碳生产率不仅是2030年前实现碳达峰的关键所在，也是绿色高质量发展的必然要求。本文通过构建一个集成DEA框架将能源结构、要素替代、全要素生产率与单要素碳生产率统一起来，实证分析了中国碳生产率的驱动因素、演变特征以及动力转换机理。结果表明：中国碳生产率呈现阶段性正向增长态势，资本替代效应持续发挥了主导作用。从地区差异来看，中西部省份要素替代效应的后发优势明显，但是全要素生产率却远远滞后于大多数东部省份。偏向分解显示，中国低碳经济主要以索罗中性技术进步为主，并通过不断提升资本替代边际产出而引致其较高的积累速度，但是资本积累速度持续高于产出增速也造成了大量技术闲置和资源浪费，致使资本替代效应与全要素生产率形成鲜明的反向角力态势。本文建议从优化能源结构、推动资本能源替代转型、构建绿色技术创新体系等方面助力整体碳生产率提升。
关键词：碳生产率；要素替代；技术进步偏向；增长动力
Abstract: Increasing carbon productivity is not only the key to achieving carbon peak by 2030, but also an inevitable requirement for green and high-quality development. This paper unifies the energy structure, factor substitution, total factor productivity and single factor carbon productivity by constructing an integrated DEA framework, and empirically analyzes the driving factors, evolution characteristics and power conversion mechanism of China's carbon productivity. The results show that China's carbon productivity has shown a phased positive growth trend, and the capital substitution effect continues to play a leading role. From the perspective of regional differences, the mid-western provinces have obvious late-comer advantages in factor substitution effects, but their total factor productivity lags far behind most eastern provinces. The decomposition of bias shows that China’s low-carbon economy is mainly based on Solow’s neutral technological progress, which has led to a higher accumulation rate through the continuous improvement of capital substitution for marginal output, but the continuous increase in capital accumulation rate than output growth rate has also caused a large amount of idle technology and waste of resources have resulted in a sharp contradictory situation between the capital substitution effect and total factor productivity. This article proposes to improve the overall carbon productivity by optimizing the control of the energy structure, promoting the transformation of capital energy substitution, and building a green technology innovation system.
Keywords: Carbon Productivity; Element Substitution; Technological Progress Bias; Growth Momentum
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2021.02.004
基金项目：国家哲学社会科学基金青年项目“中国省域碳生产率增长潜力研究”（17CJY023）。
