Analysis on the Spatio-temporal Evolution and DrivingFactors of Carbon Pressure in the Middle Reachesof the Yangtze River
Song Mei, Chang Liyue and Hao Xuguang
摘要：绿色低碳是应对气候变化、实现高质量发展的重要路径。本文通过测算碳压力指数，运用探索性空间数据分析、标准差椭圆分析和地理探测器等方法，对2008—2018年长江中游城市群碳压力时空演化格局及驱动因素进行研究。结果显示：碳压力整体处于超载状态，研究期内呈现“N”字形上升趋势，城市间碳压力异质特征显著，空间相关性逐渐减弱；碳压力重心总体向东南偏移，武汉城市圈对长江城市群整体碳压力水平起主导作用，但环鄱阳湖城市群的作用逐渐显现；长江中游城市群碳压力空间分异格局的主要驱动因素为人口密度和技术进步，三个次级城市圈碳压力核心驱动因素差异明显，武汉城市圈、环长株潭城市群和鄱阳湖城市群碳压力核心驱动因素分别为人口密度、经济发展水平和环境规制。进而提出了优化人口结构、推动低碳技术发展，加强长江中游城市群生态系统的保护与修复、提高城市群碳吸收能力，建立区域联动机制、协同治理碳压力的政策建议。
关键词：碳压力；时空格局；驱动因素；地理探测器；长江中游城市群
Abstract: Green and low-carbon is an important way to tackle climate change and achieve high-quality development. This paper constructs a carbon pressure index, and uses exploratory spatial data analysis, standard deviation ellipse analysis and geographic detector method to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution and driving factors of carbon pressure in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River from 2008 to 2018. The results showed that the overall carbon pressure was overloaded. During the study period, there was an upward trend of“N”shape, and the carbon pressure heterogeneity between cities was significant. The gravity center of carbon pressure shifted to the southeast. The Wuhan metropolitan area plays a leading role in the overall carbon pressure level of the Middle Reaches of Yangtze River, but the effect of the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration has gradually emerged. The main driving factors for the spatial differentiation of carbon pressure in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River are population density and technological progress. The core driving factors of carbon pressure in the three sub-agglomeration are significantly different. The core driving factors of carbon pressure in the Wuhan Metropolitan Area, the Ring Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan urban agglomeration and the Poyang Lake urban agglomeration are population density, economic development level and environmental regulation respectively. Furthermore, some policy suggestions are put forward of optimizing the population structure, promoting the development of low-carbon technology, strengthening the protection and restoration of the ecosystem of the urban agglomeration in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River, improving the carbon absorption capacity of the urban agglomeration, establishing a regional linkage mechanism and coordinating carbon pressure.
Keywords: Carbon Pressure; Spatio-Temporal Evolution; Driving Factors; Geographical Detector Model; The Middle Reaches of Yangtze River
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2021.02.003
基金项目：自然资源部资源环境承载力评价重点实验室课题“资源型城市经济社会发展与资源环境承载力耦合研究”（CCA2019.16）、中国工程院重大咨询项目“我国煤矿安全及废弃矿井资源开发利用战略研究”（2017-ZD-03）。
全文：
长江中游城市群碳压力时空演化格局及驱动因素分析.pdf