The Scenarios of China Reaching the Peaking of Carbon
Emission Before 2030 and Its Macroeconomic Implications
Lu Chuanyi and Chen Wenying
摘要：第75届联合国大会上中国提出了2030年前碳达峰、2060年前碳中和的目标，引领了全球应对气候变化的进程，引起了国内外的广泛关注和热评。因此，对强化的提前碳达峰目标的实现路径及其宏观经济影响研究，具有重要的现实意义和学术价值。本文采用动态可计算一般均衡模型TECGE定量分析了强化碳达峰承诺对我国未来宏观经济的影响。设定了四个情景包括2030、2027、2025和2023年碳达峰，峰值分别为108亿吨、107亿吨、105.8亿吨和103.6亿吨，考察提前碳达峰情景与2030年碳达峰情景相比对宏观经济的影响。研究表明，提前碳达峰情景相比2030年基准情景，越早碳达峰情景，要求碳税价格越高，GDP和其他宏观经济变量如总消费、总进出口等都有所下降，但是第三产业占比有所上升。越早碳达峰，宏观经济变量下降越多，第三产业占比上升得越多。根据CGE模型对宏观经济影响的定量分析，本文为提前实现碳达峰目标、推进经济高质量发展提出了相关的政策建议。
关键词：提前碳达峰；CGE；碳税；宏观经济
Abstract: At the 75th session of UN General Assembly, China proposed the goals of peaking carbon emission before 2030 and becoming carbon neutral by 2060, which led the global response to climate change and attracted wide attention and praise all over the world. It is important for the research on the realization path and its economic impact of reaching the peak before 2030. In this paper, the dynamic computable general equilibrium model TECGE is used to analyze the macroeconomic impact of enhanced peaking commitment of China. Four scenarios are set for the CO2 emission peaks in 2030, 2027, 2025 and 2023, with the peaks of 10.8, 10.7, 10.58 and 10.36 billion tons respectively. The impact of the earlier peaking compared with the peaking in 2030 is simulated respectively. The results show that compared with the benchmark scenario, the earlier for the peak year, the higher the carbon price is for the corresponding year. The GDP and other macroeconomic variables such as total consumption, total imports and exports, etc. are declined, but the proportion of tertiary industry are increased. The earlier is the peaking year, the more declined for the macroeconomic variables, and the more increased for the proportion of tertiary industry. After the quantitative analysis using the CGE model, some policy suggestions are put forward to achieve the goal of reaching the carbon emission peak earlier and promote high quality economic development.
Keywords: Carbon Emission Peak Earlier; CGE; Carbon Tax; Macro-economy
基金项目：国 家 重 点 研 发 计 划 课 题“ 我 国 应 对 气 候 变 化 与 经 济 社 会 环 境 协 同 治 理 路 径 模 拟 研 究 ”（2018YFC1509006）。
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2021.01.002
