摘要：本研究以我国“新能源示范城市”试点政策为自然实验，基于2000—2022年城市面板数据，采用双重差分法系统考察了该政策对试点城市出口竞争力的影响。研究发现：第一，新能源示范城市政策平均显著提升试点城市出口竞争力，该结论经一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。第二，政策效应呈现显著异质性，对欧盟等发达市场及“一带一路”沿线国家的出口促进效果尤为突出，体现了与高端绿色需求和国家战略的深度协同。第三，机制分析表明，政策通过“创新驱动”与“效率改进”双轮协同路径发挥作用：一方面激发企业绿色技术创新，增加研发投入；另一方面提升城市全要素生产率，优化资源配置与生产过程。第四，调节效应检验揭示，金融深化、人力资本积累、出口导向及数字化基础能够强化政策效果，而宏观经济波动则会抑制政策效能。本研究为“波特假说”的创新补偿逻辑在中国城市绿色转型情境下的适用性提供了支持性证据，表明恰当设计的环境规制能够与贸易竞争力提升相兼容，对完善绿色试点政策设计与推动高水平对外开放具有重要启示。与既有研究相比，本研究的边际贡献在于：将新能源示范城市政策的效应评估从环境治理与本地经济维度拓展至出口贸易竞争力维度，构建了城市层面分目的地市场的出口技术复杂度测度，并在统一框架内识别了“创新驱动”与“效率改进”双路径机制及政策生效的边界条件，为同类综合性绿色试点政策的贸易效应评估提供了新的经验证据。
关键词：新能源示范城市；出口竞争力；双重差分法；绿色创新；试点政策评估
Has the New Energy Demonstration City Construction Enhanced Urban Export Trade Competitiveness?
Zhong Chao, Cai Hongbo
Abstract: Based on China's New Energy Demonstration City pilot policy as a natural experiment, this study employs a difference-in-differences approach using city-level panel data from 2000 to 2022 to systematically examine the policy's impact on the export competitiveness of pilot cities. The findings reveal four key insights. First, the policy significantly enhances export competitiveness on average among pilot cities, a conclusion that remains robust across multiple validation tests. Second, the policy effects exhibit substantial heterogeneity, with particularly pronounced promotion effects on exports to developed markets such as the EU and countries along the Belt and Road, reflecting deep synergy with high-end green demand and national strategic priorities. Third, mechanism analysis demonstrates that the policy operates through a dual-pathway of innovation-driven and efficiency-enhancement synergies: stimulating green technology innovation and R&D investment on one hand, while improving total factor productivity and optimizing resource allocation and production processes on the other. Fourth, moderation tests indicate that financial deepening, human capital accumulation, export orientation, and digital infrastructure strengthen policy effectiveness, whereas macroeconomic fluctuations dampen it. This study provides supportive evidence for the applicability of the innovation compensation logic of the Porter Hypothesis in the context of China's urban green transformation, suggesting that well-designed environmental regulation can be compatible with trade competitiveness enhancement, with important implications for refining green pilot policy design and advancing high-standard opening up. Compared with existing studies, the marginal contributions of this study lie in: extending the effect evaluation of the New Energy Demonstration City policy from the dimensions of environmental governance and local economy to the dimension of export trade competitiveness; constructing a city-level measure of export technology sophistication by destination market; and identifying, within a unified framework, the dual-path mechanisms of innovation-driven and efficiency-enhancement together with the boundary conditions for policy effectiveness, thereby providing new empirical evidence for evaluating the trade effects of similar comprehensive green pilot policies.
Keywords: New Energy Demonstration City; Export Competitiveness; Difference-in-Differences; Green Innovation; Pilot Policy Evaluation
