摘要：城市生态韧性指城市生态系统应对扰动、适应变化并实现可持续发展的能力。新能源示范城市建设是中国能源转型过程中的一项重要试点工程，本文将其作为能源转型政策的准自然实验，基于2006—2021年中国281个地级及以上城市的面板数据，运用双重差分模型评估能源转型政策对城市生态韧性的影响及作用机制。研究发现，能源转型政策显著提升了城市生态韧性，且这一结论在多种稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明，该政策通过激励政府增加能源转型基础设施投入与节能环保财政支出、促进企业绿色技术创新与产业结构升级、引导居民形成绿色消费偏好三条路径发挥作用。进一步分析表明，地方政府政治激励对该政策的生态韧性提升效应具有正向调节作用。异质性分析显示，相较于资源型城市，该政策对非资源型城市生态韧性的提升效应更显著。空间效应检验表明，该政策对城市生态韧性的提升作用具有显著的空间溢出效应。本文研究结论为在 “双碳” 目标下差异化推进区域能源绿色转型、提升城市生态韧性水平提供了重要的理论依据与实证支撑。
关键词：新能源示范城市建设；能源转型政策；生态韧性；政策溢出
Research on the Impact of Energy Transition Policy on Urban Ecological Resilience
Abstract: Urban ecological resilience refers to the capacity of urban ecosystems to cope with disturbances, adapt to changes, and achieve sustainable development. The New Energy Demonstration City (NEDC) program is an important pilot initiative in China’s energy transition. This paper treats the program as a quasi-natural experiment of energy transition policy. Based on panel data for 281 Chinese cities at the prefecture level and above from 2006 to 2021, this paper employs a Difference-in-Differences model to evaluate the impact of energy transition policy on urban ecological resilience and its underlying mechanisms. The findings show that energy transition policy significantly improves urban ecological resilience, and this conclusion still holds after various robustness checks. Mechanism analysis indicates that the policy operates through three channels: incentivizing governments to increase investment in energy transition infrastructure and fiscal expenditure on energy conservation and environmental protection, promoting corporate green technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading, and guiding residents to develop green consumption preferences. Further analysis shows that local government political incentives positively moderate the policy’s effect on enhancing urban ecological resilience. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that, compared with resource-based cities, the policy has a more pronounced effect on improving urban ecological resilience in non-resource-based cities. Spatial effect tests indicate that the policy’s enhancement of urban ecological resilience has significant spatial spill over effects.This paper provides important theoretical basis and empirical support for differentiated promotion of regional green energy transition and the improvement of urban ecological resilience under the“Dual Carbon”goal.
Keywords: Environmental Protection Tax; Supply Chain; Green Technological Innovation; Spillover Effects
