摘要：城市生态韧性指城市生态系统应对扰动、适应变化并实现可持续发展的能力。新能源示范城市建设是中国能源转型过程中的一项重要试点工程，本文将其作为能源转型政策的准自然实验，基于2006—2021年中国281个地级及以上城市的面板数据，运用双重差分模型评估能源转型政策对城市生态韧性的影响及作用机制。研究发现，能源转型政策显著提升了城市生态韧性，且这一结论在多种稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明，该政策通过激励政府增加能源转型基础设施投入与节能环保财政支出、促进企业绿色技术创新与产业结构升级、引导居民形成绿色消费偏好三条路径发挥作用。进一步分析表明，地方政府政治激励对该政策的生态韧性提升效应具有正向调节作用。异质性分析显示，相较于资源型城市，该政策对非资源型城市生态韧性的提升效应更显著。空间效应检验表明，该政策对城市生态韧性的提升作用具有显著的空间溢出效应。本文研究结论为在 “双碳” 目标下差异化推进区域能源绿色转型、提升城市生态韧性水平提供了重要的理论依据与实证支撑。
关键词：新能源示范城市建设；能源转型政策；生态韧性；政策溢出
Environmental Protection Tax and Green Technological Innovation: Evidence from Asymmetric Spillovers along the Supply Chain
Yan Zheming, Gao Yidan, Zhu Danfeng
Abstract: Against the backdrop of China’s accelerated green transformation of economic and social development, identifying the comprehensive effects of the Environmental Protection Tax on enterprises’ green technological innovation along the supply chain is essential for promoting green and sustainable growth and fostering new productive forces. Exploiting the implementation of the Environmental Protection Tax Law of the People’s Republic of China, this paper constructs a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model to systematically examine both the direct impact of the Environmental Protection Tax on enterprises’ green technological innovation and its spillover effects along the supply chain. The results show that, first, the policy significantly crowds out enterprises’ green technological innovation through a cost-compliance effect, as evidenced by a simultaneous decline in the total number of green patents. Second, supply chain analysis reveals pronounced asymmetric effects across upstream and downstream firms. Downstream enterprises stimulate green technological innovation among midstream firms through demand-pull mechanisms and the provision of trade credit, whereas the tax burden–shifting behavior of upstream firms weakens this transmission channel. Third, heterogeneity analysis indicates that these spillover effects vary significantly across firms with different ownership concentration structures and levels of industrial pollution intensity. This paper offers a more comprehensive perspective and empirical evidence for evaluating the green transformation effects of the Environmental Protection Tax, deepens the understanding of the role of supply chain linkages in shaping firms’ green technological innovation responses, and provides policy-relevant insights for coordinating environmental taxation with the green and low-carbon transformation of industries. This paper provides important theoretical basis and empirical support for differentiated promotion of regional green energy transition and the improvement of urban ecological resilience under the “Dual Carbon” goal.
Keywords: Environmental Protection Tax; Supply Chain; Green Technological Innovation; Spillover Effects
