Temporal and Spatial Evolution Path of Regional Water Footprint and Virtual Water Trade in China
Tian Xu, Geng Yong, Wu Rui and Xu Yue
摘要：水资源为中国省域经济发展提供源动力，深入识别消费侧水资源消耗对于省份水资源可持续管理以及经济发展进程中水资源危机应对具有重要意义。本文基于2012年和2017年中国多区域投入产出表，结合投入产出分析方法以及结构路径分析方法，揭示了消费侧各省由最终需求引起的水资源消耗、虚拟水贸易以及水资源关键传导路径的特征及演化趋势。研究显示：相较于2012年，在2017年中西部地区的居民消费、政府消费以及固定资产最终需求产生的水足迹增长趋势明显，并且省际净虚拟水进口的增长幅度较大；农业部门是各省水资源消耗的关键部门；在2017年各省直接水资源消耗路径依赖其省份内传导趋势增强，间接水资源消耗路径较为多元化并且省际间关联作用较强。为实现水资源可持续管理，各省相关部门应重点加强绿色化消费模式、高效的虚拟水贸易循环模式以及水资源关键传导部门产业链危机应对等方面的治理。
关键词：投入产出分析；省域；结构路径分析；虚拟水贸易；水足迹
Abstract：Water drives for provincial economic development. Identifying the relevant water consumption at provincial level has great significance for water management and addressing water crisis. Based on the Multi-Regional Input-output model in 2012 and 2017 and structural path analysis, this study revealed the characteristic and evolutionary trend of water consumption, virtual water trade and water critical pathways caused by final demand in each province. The results showed that: compared with the situation in 2012, the water footprint caused by household consumption, government consumption and fixed assets increased in central and western regions, furthermore, the net imported virtual water trade in central and western regions also increased in 2017; agricultural sector is the key water consumption sector in each province; provincial direct water consumption more relied on its local industries, and the path of provincial indirect water consumption became more diverse in 2017. In order to achieve the sustainable management of water resources, province should strengthen the governance of green consumption models, and promote the efficient in virtual water trade, and promote the ability of key industries addressing the water supply chain crisis.
Keywords: Input-Output Analysis; Provincial; Structural Path Analysis; Virtual Water Trade; Water Footprint
基金资助：上海市浦江人才计划项目“贸易对上海市经济绿色低碳发展的影响研究”（批准号: 2020PJC078）；国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“中国对外商品贸易中隐含资源转移时空特征、影响因素及政策优化研究”（批准号: 71704104）和国家自然科学基金重点国际合作项目“中国社会经济绿色低碳发展的规律研究”（批准号: 71810107001）。
