Does Air Pollution Increase the Vulnerability to Poverty of Migrant Population？
Zeng Yongming, Wang Yaoyao and Zhang Liguo
摘要：文章以相对贫困为切入点，基于中国是否正在经历丰裕社会里的“雾霾贫困”的思考，探讨空气污染的贫困化后果和作用渠道。根据2016年流动人口动态监测数据，利用消费水平及相对收入水平来构造和测度流动人口的预期贫困脆弱性风险概率，进而通过将个体与县域雾霾水平相匹配来研究空气污染对流动人口贫困脆弱性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：雾霾污染会显著增加流动人口的贫困脆弱性，证实“雾霾贫困”的存在；以空气流动系数为工具变量得到的回归结论一致，雾霾的增加会导致流动人口预期贫困脆弱性风险的增加。在一系列稳健性检验后，“雾霾贫困”的结论依然成立。从分样本的结果来看，雾霾对脆弱家庭的影响大于非脆弱家庭，且随着脆弱程度的提升，雾霾对流动人口家庭相对贫困的作用在不断减弱。异质性分析表明，相对弱势群体和相对敏感群体的贫困脆弱性风险更大。影响机制分析发现，健康、支出水平、工作时长都是雾霾影响贫困脆弱性的重要渠道。在后脱贫时代，清洁空气、人居环境等生活质量要素应纳入相对贫困长效治理机制范畴。
关键词：对外贸易；投入产出法；隐含能源；进出口结构；能源贸易
Abstract: Taking relative poverty as the breakthrough point, based on whether China is experiencing smog poverty in an affluent society, this paper discusses the consequences, impact mechanism and channels of air pollution impoverishment. Based on 2016 China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS), this paper constructs and measures the expected poverty vulnerability risk probability of migrant population through consumption level and relative income level, and studies the impact of air pollution on the poverty vulnerability of migrant population and its impact mechanism based on the matching of individual and county haze level. The results show that PM2.5 can significantly increase the poverty vulnerability of the migrant population, which confirms the existence of smog poverty; The regression conclusions with ventilation coefficient as tool variable are consistent, and the estimated results show that the increase of PM2.5 will promote the poverty vulnerability risk of the migrant population. After a series of robustness tests, the conclusion of smog poverty still holds. From the sub sample results, the impact of PM2.5 on vulnerable families is greater than that of non-vulnerable families, and with the increase of vulnerability, the effect of haze on the relative poverty of migrant families is weakening. The heterogeneity analysis shows that the risk of poverty vulnerability of the relatively vulnerable groups and the relatively sensitive groups is greater. The impact mechanism analysis shows that health, expenditure level and working hours are all important channels for PM2.5 to affect poverty vulnerability. In the post poverty era, clean air, living environment and other elements of quality of life should be included in the long-term governance mechanism of relative poverty.
Keywords: Air Pollution; Haze Poverty; Migrant Population; Relative Poverty; Group Heterogeneity
基金资助：国家自然科学基金“邻里效应对流动人口相对贫困的影响机制与治理策略研究”（72064018），教育部人文社科基金“长江经济带流动人口空间格局演变及其对区域均衡发展的作用机制研究”（18YJC790006）和国家社科基金重大招标项目“新时代我国农村贫困性质变化及 2020 年后反贫困政策研究”（19ZDA117）。
