摘要：华北地区特别是河北省是我国地下水超采最为严重的地区，其中农业灌溉是地下水超采的主要诱因。本文基于可得的2016—2019年河北省49个县地下水治理的农业项目数据，采用EBM模型度量了农业项目综合治理效率及主要措施的治理效率，并运用分数响应模型实证分析了农业项目综合治理效率的主要影响因素。研究发现：农业项目综合治理效率保持了较高水平，综合治理效率及具体项目的效率呈现波动中改善势头；县区间治理效率分化明显；种植结构调整的效率高于其他措施。降水量、井灌回归补给以及财政支持对效率提升起到显著正向作用，地下水开采量、地表水体和农业比重呈负向制约作用。据此提出优化资源配置、建立协调治理机制、健全绩效考核体系、调整人口和产业结构以及注重运用新技术等政策建议。
关键词：地下水超采；农业项目；治理效率；EBM模型；分数响应模型
Governance Efficiency and Influencing Factors of Agricultural Projects for Overexploitation of Groundwater: Empirical Study of 49 Pilot Counties in Hebei Province
Li Jing, Liu Di and Chang Yuanyuan
Abstract: North China, especially Hebei Province, is the most serious area of groundwater overexploitation in China, and agricultural irrigation is the main cause of groundwater overexploitation. Based on the available agricultural project data of groundwater treatment in 49 counties of Hebei Province from 2016 to 2019, we used EBM model to measure the comprehensive governance efficiency of agricultural projects and the governance efficiency of main measures, and empirically analyzed the main influencing factors of comprehensive treatment efficiency of agricultural projects using the fractional response model. The results show that the comprehensive governance efficiency of agricultural projects has maintained a high level. Besides, the comprehensive governance efficiency and the efficiency of specific projects show a momentum of improvement in fluctuation, and the governance efficiency of county is obviously differentiated. The efficiency of planting structure adjustment is higher than other measures. Precipitation, proper irrigation recharge and financial support play a significant positive role in improving efficiency, while groundwater exploitation, surface water and agricultural proportion are negatively restrictive. Our conclusions imply some policy suggestions, such as optimizing resource allocation, establishing coordinated governance mechanism, improving performance appraisal system, adjusting population and industrial structure, and paying attention to the use of new technology.
Keywords: Groundwater Overexploitation; Agricultural Projects; Governance Efficiency; EBM method; Fractional Response Model
基金项目：本文系国家自然科学基金项目“多目标约束下水资源税改革的效果评估及政策优化研究”（71974051）的阶段性成果。
全文：
地下水超采的农业项目综合治理效率及影响因素 ——基于河北省49个试点县区的实证研究.pdf