Regional Water-Energy Nexus and Resource Scarcity Risk Assessment
Wu Fei, Fang Lei, Feng Bo
摘要：资源禀赋差异的客观存在以及维护经济发展和社会稳定的客观需求为区域水和能源的可持续性供应带来挑战。由于水和能源在生产环节和消费环节相互依赖，厘清水和能源在供需环节的内在关联及相关风险对实现水和能源资源的有效协同管理具有重要意义。本文从水-能耦合关系出发，构建了区域水-能耦合指数和区域资源短缺风险评估模型，用于揭示区域水-能直接和间接关系，剖析区域间水-能耦合特征，以及评估区域内和区域间的资源短缺风险。本文以长三角地区为例，发现区域内社会经济和物质流动会使各省市之间形成依赖或掠夺关系，混合隐含水、隐含能的输入输出会导致各省市承受相应的溢出风险，因而区域内需对资源进行优化配置，确保资源供应的稳定性。本文为水-能源耦合关系研究提供了新的视角，有助于揭示区域资源供应可靠性、探索区域水能协同优化配置的有效方案。
关键词：多区域投入产出分析；水-能耦合；风险评估；协同管理
Abstract: The differences in resource endowment and the desire to maintain economic development and social stability pose great challenges to the sustainable supply of water and energy in the region. Water and energy are strongly interwoven in production and consumption activities. It is of great significance to clarify the interwoven relations and scarcity risks between water and energy to achieve the effective collaborative management. This paper proposed the water-energy nexus indicator and regional resource scarcity risk assessment model from the perspective of water energy nexus to reveal the direct and indirect water-energy nexus and the characteristics of multi-regional water-energy nexus. Also, water and energy scarcity risk in regional trade system are assessed based on Multi-regional Input-Output. Finally, a case study was conducted in the Yangtze River Delta, results show that the social economic and material flow in the region could lead to the dependence or plunder relationship among provinces. And the flow of hybrid embodied water and energy could induce regional spillover risks. Therefore, it is necessary to optimize the allocation of resources to ensure the stability of resource supply. This paper provides a new perspective for the research of water-energy nexus, which could identify vulnerable provinces and sectors of water and energy scarcity and clarify the sustainability of resource supply in the whole region, to promote the exploration of effective coordinated optimization scheme of regional water and energy allocation.
Keywords:Multi-regional Input-Output Analysis; Water-Energy Nexus; Risk Assessment; Collaborative Management
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目“差异化减排措施下二氧化碳边际减排成本研究——基于物质平衡原理”
（71804066）
