The Effect of Air Pollution on Perinatal Mortality
Du Liangsheng，Liu Bin and Fan Dan
摘要：大气污染正在严重威胁居民健康，而围产儿作为敏感群体更容易受到大气污染影响。本文选取中国省际面板数据，以围产儿死亡率作为公众健康的代理指标，采用空间自滞后模型分析大气污染的溢出效应对围产儿死亡率的影响机制，进一步构建面板门槛模型捕捉大气污染的溢出效应对本地区围产儿死亡率的非线性特征。研究发现，大气污染浓度的增加是围产儿死亡率显著增加的主要因素之一，但邻近地区的大气污染浓度增加并未增加本地区围产儿死亡率。基于面板门槛模型的研究发现，本地区经济发展水平的不同导致临近地区的大气污染对本地区围产儿死亡率产生差异化抑制作用，且随着经济发展水平的提高，抑制作用愈加增大。因此，政府在重视经济高质量发展的同时，更应注重提高居民健康保护意识，完善敏感人群特别是婴幼儿的健康管理，降低空气污染对胎儿健康的负面影响。
关键词 ： 大气污染, 空间自滞后模型, 面板门槛模型, 公众健康
Abstract: Air pollution is seriously threatening the health of residents，and perinatal children are more susceptible to atmospheric pollution as sensitive groups． We selects the provincial panel data of China，uses perinatal mortality as a proxy for public health，and uses the spatial lag of X model ( SLX) to analyze the impact mechanism of air pollution spillover effects on perinatal mortality． Furthermore，We build the panel threshold model to capture the non－linear characteristics of the perinatal mortality in the region by capturing the spillover effects of atmospheric pollution．We find that the increase of air pollution concentration is one of the main factors that significantly increase the perinatal death rate，but the increase of air pollution concentration in the neighboring area does not adversely affect the perinatal mortality in this area． Based on the conclusion of the panel threshold model，we find that the difference in the level of economic development in the region has led to the differential suppression of perinatal mortality in the region， and the suppression has become more significant as the level of economic development has increased． Therefore， while attaching importance to high－quality economic development，the government are supposed to pay more attention to raising residents＇ awareness of health protection，improve the health management of sensitive populations，especially infants and young children，and reduce the negative impact of air pollution on fetal health．
Keywords: Air Pollution; The SLX Model; Panel Threshold Model; Public Health
基金资助:本文系国家自然科学基金青年项目“绿色技术创新视阈下我国环境污染的空间效应及差异化环境规制路径研究”(７１６０３０４２)、国家自然科学基金面上项目“省际能源消费的变系数非参空间面板数据模型研究”(７１７７３０１２)、国家社会科学基金重大项目“新常态下我国宏观经济监测和预测研究” (１５ＺＤＡ０１１)的阶段性成果。
DOI:10．19511/j．cnki．jee．2018．04．005