Cross－regional Black Carbon Transfer and Management Strategy: Based on MＲIO and WＲF/Chem Models
Zhou Sili，Meng Jing，Wei Wendong and Li Jiashuo
摘要：作为ＰＭ２.５的重要组成部分，黑碳对环境安全和民众健康均造成严重危害。本文以湖北省为案例，利用多区域投入产出分析方法和大气传输模型定量分析省区贸易和大气传输作用对区域黑碳排放的影响。基于清单编制法，本文首先编制了中国30个省区黑碳排放清单，发现湖北省黑碳排放占全国总量的4.64%。区域贸易分析结果显示：湖北省属于隐含黑碳排放净进口地区。在大气传输的作用下，湖北黑碳表面浓度受河南、陕西和山东的影响最大。同时，湖北对湖南、重庆和河南的黑碳表面浓度影响较为显著。研究还发现:当每个省区最终消费增加10亿元时，会引起湖北的黑碳表面浓度上升9.11×１０－４μｇ / ｍ３。其中，来自其他29个省区的贡献占比超过 2/3。最后，本文从消费和生产视角、供应链协同、跨区域联动等方面提出了黑碳减排政策建议：应重点关注纺织业、食品加工业等主要隐含排放进口行业，优化产业发展模式；针对河南、山东、安徽、广东等关联影响较大的区域，可建立消费与生产视角共担的减排责任分摊机制，通过开展技术合作、投入研发基金等形式共同应对黑碳污染问题。
关键词 ： 黑碳, ＭＲＩＯ, ＷＲＦ / Ｃｈｅｍ 模型, 减排策略
Abstract: As an important component of fine particulate matter( PM2． 5) ，black carbon ( BC) can pose great harm to both environment and public health． This study selects Hubei Province as the case to evaluate how air transport and regional trade influence regional BC emissions，by using multiregional input－output ( MＲIO) analysis and Weather Ｒesearch and Forecasting with Chemistry( WＲF/Chem) model． The national BC inventory on 30 provincial regions was compiled，and the direct BC emissions of Hubei accounted for 4．64% of the national total． MＲIO analysis shows that Hubei is a net importer． In terms of the impact of trans－boundary transport，Henan，Shaanxi and Shandong have the most significant contribution to the annual averaged surface BC concentration of Hubei． While BC emissions in Hubei lead to BC concentration in Hunan，Chongqing and Henan increasing obviously． It is also found that if each provincial region’s final consumption increases one billion ＲMB，the surface BC concentration of Hubei will increase by 9． 11×10－4μg/m3，to which other 29 provincial regions contributed more than 2/3． In conclusion，policy suggestions on black carbon mitigation from the perspectives of consumption and production，the supply chain collaboration and cross－regional cooperation are proposed． Hubei should pay attention to textile and food processing which are the main contributor of importing embodied BC emissions，as well as cooperate with related regions such as Henan， Shandong，Anhui，and Guangdong to establish the shared－ responsibility regulation，improve the environment quality together by technical cooperation and provide financial aid．
Keywords: Black Carbon; MＲIO; WＲF/Chem; Mitigation Strategy
基金资助:本文系国家自然科学基金项目“中国能源汞排放责任分摊、动态演化与减排策略研究” (７１７０４０６０)和华中科技大学能源与动力工程学院 “２０１６ 年自主创新基金项目” (０１１８１２０１３５)的阶段性成果。
全文：
黑碳跨区域转移及其治理策略研究——基于MRIO和WRF/Chem模型.pdf
DOI:10．19511/j．cnki．jee．2018．04．007