Evolution of International Crude Oil Pricing Mechanism and Its Implications to China＇s Crude Oil Futures
Shi Xunpeng，Ji Qiang and Zhang Dayong
摘要：本文主要对国际原油定价的历史演化规律进行了梳理，总结了不同时期国际原油的定价模式和定价机理。针对当前市场化定价阶段，文章对比国际基准原油市场的形成条件和关键因素，提出有利于形成国际标杆价格的六大要素。同时，本文采用我国新上市的上海原油期货交易数据量化分析了我国原油市场与国际基准原油市场间的风险溢出关系。研究发现，我国原油市场的整体风险较高，且受国际基准原油市场的风险溢出影响显著，市场监管和风险防控面临很大的压力。基于国际经验和实证证据，本文建议通过不断完善市场交易制度、提升交易者的多样化、国际化和活跃度、建立有效的风险监测、预警和应急机制等促进我国人民币石油期货的健康发展。充分利用“一带一路”平台推进石油人民币进程，逐步完成人民币由计价货币向贸易结算货币的转变。
关键词 ： 上海原油期货, 定价机制, 风险溢出, 国际基准价格
Abstract: This paper reviews the historical evolution of international crude oil pricing systems and summarizes their key characteristics in each stage． Combing past experiences and recent market environments，we propose six important factors to develop a new international benchmark price． In addition，an empirical study is delivered to reveal the interaction between China’ s newly launched crude oil futures and international benchmark prices． The results show that Shanghai crude oil future has the highest risk level and is apparently affected by international crude oil markets，giving rise to regulatory concerns and demands to improve risk management． The paper reaches the following policy implications to the authorities: to further improve futures’trading mechanisms; to increase diversification， internationalization and activity of traders; to establish effective risk monitoring，early warning and emergence response mechanisms． We also suggest to further utilize the Belt and Ｒoad platform，steadily push ＲMB oil pricesforward and gradually boost the transition of ＲMB to a global settlement currency．
Keywords: Shanghai Crude Oil Futures; Pricing Mechanism; Ｒisk Spillover; International Benchmark Price
基金资助:国家自然科学基金面上项目“国际石油市场微观－宏观行为规律与复杂机理研究” (７１７７４１５２)、国家自然科学基金面上项目 “后金融危机时代国际油价冲击对居民消费的影响研究” (７１５７３２１４) 、国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育项目“大数据驱动下石油市场微观机理与风险管理范式研究” ( ９１５４６１０９)
DOI:10．19511/j．cnki．jee．2018．03．009