The Environmental and Economic Effects of the Ｒestriction of Solid Waste Imports
Cui Qi，Zhang Jiangxue，Wei Wei and He Ling
摘要：我国政府于２０１７年开始推动固体废弃物进口管理的改革，并计划于２０１９年逐步限制国内资源可替代的固体废弃物进口。限制固体废弃物进口将有效地减少进口固废处理中造成的生态环境破坏和居民健康危害，但进口的废品废料是我国某些产业的重要原材料，限制固体废弃物进口可能会对宏观经济和产业发展造成一定的损失。基于２０１５年中国投入产出表，本研究构建可计算一般均衡模型，模拟分析限制固体废弃物进口的环境经济影响。本文的研究结果表明，如果限制固体废弃物进口，我国宏观经济和产业产出将遭遇一定的损失。随着国内废弃物资源价格升高，国内废弃物回收行业的活动水平将得到有效提升，从而提高国内资源回收率、减少资源浪费，同时减少废弃物焚烧、填埋造成的环境污染和土地资源占用。潜在的环境效益可能抵消限制固体废弃物进口造成的宏观经济损失。本文建议未来应该允许适度进口环境危害较小的废弃物，并进一步加强固体废弃物进口的管理，更重要的是提高国内废品废料回收行业的生产效率，进一步提高国内资源回收率，减少生态环境破坏。
关键词 ： ＯＲＡＮＩ－Ｇ模型, 环境与经济效应, 资源回收
Abstract: Since 2017 the government have accelerated the reform of solid－waste－import management，and claimed to
restrict the solid waste imports which could be substituted by domestic materials by 2019． The restriction of solid waste imports would effectively reduce the ecological and environmental damages as well as residents’healthy losses produced in the process and recycling． But the imported solid wastes are important material inputs for some industries in China． As a result， the restriction of solid waste imports would possibly cause damage to China’ s macro－economy and industrial development． Based on China’ s 2015 input－output table， this study uses the computable general equi librium model to evaluate the environmental and economic impacts of the restriction of solid waste imports． Our results suggest that China’ s macro－economy and industrial output are negatively affected by the restriction of solid waste imports． As the domestic waste prices rise， the improvement on production activity of waste recycling industry could raise the resource recycling efficiency，reduce resource wastes，and cut down the environmental pollution and land resource utilization from burning and dumping solid wastes． The possible environmental benefits may offset the e conomic losses caused by the restriction of solid waste imports． The policy suggestions of this paper include allowing the imports of the solid waste with slight environmental impacts， strengthening the governance of solid waste imports， more importantly， raising the producing efficiency of domestic waste recycling industry in order to lift the resource re
cycling rate and reduce environmental and ecological damages．
Keywords: Solid Waste Imports; Environmental Benefits; Economic Effects; OＲANI－G Model
基金资助:本文系中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助“水－能源－土地 Ｎｅｘｕｓ 与城市产业发展:基于北京动态多部门 ＣＧＥ 模型的研究”(２０１８ＮＴＳＳ１４)和国家社科基金一般项目 “基于产业链视角的中国工业系统生态效率评价与路径优化研究”(１８ＢＪＹ０３８)的阶段性成果。
DOI:10．19511/j．cnki．jee．2019．01．006