Uncertainty Analysis of Urban Greenhouse Gas Inventories
Zhang Xiaomei，Zhuang Guiyang and Liu Jie
摘要：不确定性分析是一个完整城市温室气体清单的重要基本组成之一。本文应用《城市温室气体核算工具指南》计算了2010 年吉林市温室气体排放清单，并以其为例利用误差传递方法和蒙特卡洛方法开展区域层面上城市尺度的温室气体排放清单的不确定性分析。研究结果表明，误差传递方法与蒙特卡洛模拟不确定性分析结果存在显著差异性，蒙特卡洛模拟结果中烟煤排放因子和烟煤活动水平数据对总的温室气体排放不确定性相对贡献最大。为了促进城市温室气体清单在减排活动中发挥更大的作用，减少城市温室气体清单不确定性需要注意以下几个方面：加强完善城市温室气体清单不确定性分析标准及评价研究；发挥信息技术支撑基础作用，提高城市能源及温室气体排放数据统计工作质量；在城市尺度上将地面测量、卫星遥感观测数据和大气模拟分析模型相结合，在更广泛的系统里对温室气体数据进行衡量和互相验证，提高不确定性分析水平。
关键词 ： 城市温室气体清单, 不确定性, 误差传递方法, 蒙特卡洛方法
Abstract: Uncertainty analysis is one of the most fundamental components of a complete urban GHG inventory. In this paper, we calculate the greenhouse gas emission inventory of Jilin City in 2010 by using the Guideline of Urban Greenhouse Gas Accounting Tool. Then through the error transfer method and Monte-Carlo method to study the urban-scale greenhouse gas emission inventory uncertainty at the regional level. The results show that there is a significant difference between the error transfer method and the Monte Carlo simulation uncertainty analysis. The results of Monte Carlo simulation result show that the bituminous coal emission factor and bituminous coal activity level data have the largest relative contribution to the total GHG emission uncertainty. In order to promote the urban GHG inventory to play a greater role in reducing emissions, we need to pay attention to the following aspects: Strengthen the analysis of urban greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory uncertainty and evaluation studies; Play a fundamental role of information technology support to improve the quality of statistical work on urban energy and greenhouse gas emissions data; Combining surface measurements, satellite remote sensing observations and atmospheric simulation models on city scale to measure and cross-check greenhouse gas data across a wider range of systems to improve the level of uncertainty analysis.
Keywords: City Greenhouse Inventory; Uncertainty; Error Propagation Methods; Monte Carlo Simulation
基金资助:本文系国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国低碳城市建设评价指标体系研究”（15ZDA055）的阶段性成果。
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2018.01.002