Economic Growth and Trade Embodied Carbon Emission: A Perspective from Production-based and Consumption-based Emission
Qi Shaozhou and Zhang Zhenyuan
摘要：在贸易全球化和气候变化问题日益严重的今天，贸易隐含碳的研究一直是学术界的热点。本文在理论层面分析了经济增长在生产侧和消费侧对碳排放影响的差异以及贸易隐含碳出现的原因，并构建了计量回归模型，借助面板数据对理论分析进行了验证，得到的结论包括：生产侧碳排放存在库兹涅茨曲线，碳排放随着经济增长而增加，且增速逐渐放缓；消费侧碳排放不存在库兹涅茨曲线，碳排放与经济增长呈现线性正相关的关系；贸易隐含碳（净出口向）与经济增长呈现负相关关系，且随着经济增长，贸易隐含碳（净出口向）下降的速度会逐渐放缓；贸易隐含碳与本国的经济增长相关度不大，而与该国在国际贸易中的表现关系更为紧密，在整个样本中，“向底线赛跑”效应明显，贸易开放会显著提高一国的贸易隐含碳。我们应该把握经济增长与贸易隐含碳的客观规律，意识到国际贸易中的贸易隐含碳问题，运用合理的政策工具，杜绝“向底线赛跑”的现象出现，共同应对气候变化问题。
关键词 ： 贸易隐含碳, 经济增长, 生产侧碳排放, 消费侧碳排放
Abstract:In the context of trade globalization and climate change, the study of trade embodied carbon has been a hot topic in academia. This paper analyses the difference between the influences that economic growth has both on production-based carbon emission and consumption-based carbon emission and the reason why trade embodied emission happens theoretically. Based on a panel data, this paper tests the hypothesis by constructing econometric regression model subsequently. The results show that: There exists a Carbon Kuznets Curve on the production side, that is, carbon emission increases with economic growth but at a decreasing rate; There does not exists a Carbon Kuznets Curve on the consumption side, and carbon emission has a positive linear relation with economic growth; Embodied carbon emission has a negative linear relation with economic growth, while the coefficient is decreasing; Embodied carbon emission is not related to national economic growth, but closely related to the country’s performance in international trade. In terms of the samples, the race to the bottom effect was obvious, and trade openness would significantly increase a country’s embodied carbon emission. We should realize and use the objective law between economic growth and trade embodied carbon, and employ reasonable policy tools to avoid race to the bottom. Only through the cooperation can tackling climate change successfully.
Keywords: Trade Embodied Carbon Emission; Economic Growth; Production-based Carbon Emission; Consumption-based Carbon Emission
全文：
经济增长与贸易隐含碳——基于生产侧与消费侧碳排放的视角.pdf
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2017.02.001