Co-benefit Analysis on Carbon Emissions and Haze Pollution
Yan Yaxue
摘要：随着中国碳排放与雾霾污染的减排形势日益严峻，协同减排已逐渐成为一种趋势。根据“环境库兹涅茨假说”，伴随着经济增长，环境质量总体上会出现先恶化后好转的变化过程，在该过程中会出现所谓的“门槛效应”。本文将碳排放和雾霾污染的协同效应结果看成一个有机整体，将城市化水平纳入碳排放和雾霾污染的协同关系的分析框架，并运用门槛回归模型进行面板数据分析。结果表明：城市化水平对碳排放与雾霾污染的协同关系的影响存在门槛效应。总体上说，城市化进程会抑制协同效应，当城市化水平未越过第一道门槛时，城市化水平对碳排放量与雾霾污染的协同关系呈现弱促进影响；当城市化水平越过第一道门槛时，城市化水平对碳排放量与雾霾污染的协同效应呈现弱抑制影响；当城市化水平越过第二道门槛时，城市化水平对碳排放量与雾霾污染的协同效应呈现强抑制性影响。同时，本文还针对不同地区进行了分组门槛回归分析，结果发现，对于不同类型的地区，城市化水平对于碳排放和雾霾污染的协同效应影响存在一定差异。我们认为，碳排放和雾霾污染的协同效应较为显著，不应被忽视，可作为中国城市化进程中政策制定的参考依据。
关键词 ： 碳排放, 雾霾污染, 协同效应, 城市化, 面板门槛模型
Abstract：As the task of emission reduction is becoming increasingly arduous in China, collaborative reduction on both carbon and air pollution has gradually become a trend. According to the environmental Kuznets hypothesis, environmental quality will experience a process of deterioration before improving along with economic growth, and it may appear a phenomenon of threshold effect. This paper takes co-benefit of the carbon emissions and haze pollution as a whole, and attaches urbanization ration into framework of co-benefit analysis on carbon emissions and haze pollution. The paper uses threshold regression model to analysis panel data on 29 provinces of China during 2001-2010. The results show that the threshold effect exists among the urbanization ratio on collaborative relationship of carbon emissions and haze pollution. Overall, before urbanization ratio crosses the first threshold, the urbanization could suppress the co-benefit, and the urbanization ratio shows weak positive influence on collaborative relationship of carbon emissions and haze pollution. When the urbanization ratio across the first threshold, the urbanization ratio shows weak inhibitory effects on collaborative relationship of carbon emissions and haze pollution. When the urbanization ratio across the second threshold, the urbanization ratio shows strong inhibitory effects on collaborative relationship of carbon emissions and haze pollution. At the same time, the paper also carries out the threshold regression analyses aiming at different areas (the eastern, central and western regions). The urbanization ratio shows diverse effects on collaborative relationship of carbon emissions and hazepollution in different types of region. We believe that co-benefit between the carbon emissions and haze pollution is significant, which should not be ignored. And it can be taken as a reference to China's policy-making in the process of urbanization.
Keywords: Carbon Emission; Haze Pollution; Synergistic Effect; Urbanization; Panel Threshold Model
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2017.02.004