Low Carbon Transformation under the NewNormal
He Jiankun
摘要：经济新常态下转换发展动力，转变发展方式，调整产业结构，推动能源生产和消费革命，能源消费弹性大幅下降，GDP 能源强度和CO2强度下降幅度加大，能源消费增长缓慢，而CO2排放则趋于稳定。今后随经济持续稳定增长，能源消费弹性还有可能出现反弹，CO2排放仍可能出现缓慢增长的局面，但也不可能再现快速增长的趋势。新常态下结合雾霾治理和环境质量改善，要进一步加大节能降碳的力度，争取到2025 年前后使CO2排放真正达到峰值，进而转为持续稳定下降趋势。在国际上要深度参与和积极引领全球应对气候变化合作进程，扩大影响力和话语权，体现为保护地球生态和全人类共同利益的责任担当。
关键词：经济新常态；低碳转型；CO2减排；能源革命；气候变化
Abstract：Under the New Normal, through development pattern transition, industrial structure adjustment, and energy production and consumption revolution, elasticity of energy consumption has decreased substantially, and the energy intensity and CO2 intensity of GDP has also decreased at a high rate. With the slow increase of energy consumption, CO2 emission tends to be stable. As economy continues to grow steadily in future, elasticity of energy consumption may rally and CO2 emission may also increase slightly, but it is not likely to increase at a high rate. Under the new normal, with fog and haze governance and improvement of environmental quality, China needs to further strengthen energy saving and carbon reduction, and try to achieve the true peaking of CO2 emission around 2025 and then make it decline. Internationally, China also needs to participate deeply in as well as lead the cooperation on addressing global climate change, expand national influence and discourse power, and undertake the responsibility for protecting the earth’s ecology and safeguarding the common benefit of mankind.
Keywords: New Normal; Low Carbon Transformation; CO2 Emission Reduction; Energy Revolution; Climate Change
基金资助:国家自然科学基金重大项目“绿色低碳发展转型中的关键管理科学问题与政策研究”（71690243）和教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“城市低碳发展的峰值目标与碳定价机制研究”（15JJD63006）
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2017.01.001