Evolution Analysis on Coordinated Development of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction System under the Restraint of Animal Circle
Fu Min, Tian Lixin and Fang Guochang
摘要：节能减排是控制温室气体排放、减缓气候变化的有效途径之一。如何在城市系统之间实现节能减排系统协调发展是研究节能减排的一大要义。本文基于非线性动力学知识，在动物圈约束下的节能减排系统框架下，讨论了不同城市之间动物圈约束下的系统协调发展问题。将城市碳循环系统中的动物圈引入三维节能减排系统，构建新的四维动物圈约束下的节能减排系统。基于自适应同步控制方法，构造Lyapunov 函数，探讨了两个城市系统之间节能减排协调发展的条件。借助统计数据，对南京、扬州-镇江节能减排演化系统实现协调发展的问题进行了情景分析，研究得出碳排放峰值是两个城市系统协调发展的关键因素。
关键词：动物圈；碳循环；节能减排；协调发展
Abstract: Energy saving and emission reduction (ESER) is one of the effective ways to control greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. Achieving ESER coordinated development between different cities is a key point of studying ESER. This paper discusses the coordinated development of ESER in different urban systems with the restraint of animal circle based on nonlinear dynamics method. The animal circle in carbon cycle system is introduced into the three dimensional ESER system, and the ESER system with the restraint of animal circle is constructed. The Lyapunov function is given based on the adaptive synchronization control method. The conditions for the coordinated development of energy-saving and emission-reduction between the two cities are discussed. With the aid of statistical data, a scenario analysis is conducted. Coordinated development of ESER- carbon cycle in Yangzhou- Zhenjiang and Nanjing is explored. Studies have shown that, the key factors of the coordinated development of the two urban systems are the peak values of carbon emissions.
Keywords: Animal Circle; Carbon Cycle; Energy-saving and Emission-reduction; Coordinated Development
基金资助:国家自然科学基金项目“企业和居民的绿色低碳行为研究”（71690242），“区域碳循环演化分析下的排放效应及战略研究”（71303095），“基于碳税的节能减排演化分析及调控战略研究”（71303205）、国家自然科学基金重大研究计划培育“基于大数据的微观宏观行为综合分析”（91546118）、国家博士后科学基金资助项目“新能源价格视角下的温室气体减排演化机制与调控研究”（2015T80519），“基于新能源价格的节能减排演化分析及调控战略研究”（2014M551524）和江苏省博士后基金资助项目“温室气体减排演化机制及调控研究-基于新能源价格视角”（1401049C）
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2017.01.002