The Environmental Pressure and Its Driving Force on City Level: The Perspective of Material Footprint
Yu Yadong, Ma Tieju and Zhu Bing
摘要：科学地测度区域环境的压力，并进一步分析环境压力变化的驱动力，对于降低区域环境压力具有重要意义。本研究在经济系统物质流分析的理论基础上，测算了上海市2010-2013 年的物质足迹，以此来衡量上海市资源代谢全生命周期过程的环境压力，并且将资源结构效应引进IPAT 方程来分析环境压力的驱动力。研究表明：（1）2010-2013 年间，上海市基于物质足迹的环境压力由2.795 亿吨增长到3.08 亿吨，经济增长与环境压力处于相对解耦状态；（2）上海市2010 年人均物质足迹为12.1吨，约为世界平均值的1.2 倍，略低于中国平均水平（12.3 吨），比发达国家要低很多；（3）2010-2013 年间，上海市基于物质足迹的环境压力增长的主要驱动力为人口增长和富裕度的增加，而技术水平的提升则在部分程度上减少了环境压力的增长，资源结构变化对环境压力的影响很小，但单个资源（如能源、铜等资源）比例的变化对环境压力具有不可忽视的影响。在此基础上，本研究还提出了降低城市环境压力的相关政策建议。
关键词：经济系统物质流分析；物质足迹；环境压力；上海市
Abstract: To reduce environmental pressure (EP) of a region, it is very important to measure the EP scientifically and analyse its driving force. In this research, based on the theory of economy-wide material flow analysis (EW-MFA), we estimated the material footprint (MF) of Shanghai during 2010-2013, and used MF as the measurement of EP for the life cycle of material metabolism. In addition, we explored the driving force for Shanghai’s EP by a modified IPAT equation, which includes the effect of material structure as a new factor. Results show the following. Firstly, Shanghai’s EP based on MF increased from 297.5 to 308 million tons during the period of 2010-2013, and EP is relative decoupling with the economic development. Secondly, the MF per capita in Shanghai for the year 2010 is 12.1 tons, which is about 1.2 times than the world average, a little bit lower than the Chinese average and much lower than the developed countries. Thirdly, the dominant driving force on the increasing of EP in Shanghai during 2010-2013 is the increase of population and affluence (measured by GDP per capita), while the rising of technology (measured by EP per unit GDP) is the major driving force for decreasing Shanghai’s EP. Although the overall change of material structure had a very tiny effect on Shanghai’s EP, changes in the proportion of some specific material to the total of MF, for example fossil energy, copper, etc., had non-ignorable effect on Shanghai’s EP. Based on these observations, we proposed some policy suggestions on reducing Shanghai’s EP in the end of this study.
Keywords:Economy-wide Material Flow Analysis; Material Footprint; Environmental Pressure; Shanghai
基金资助:国家自然科学基金面上项目“不确定技术学习及系统空间重构下的技术采纳优化”（71571069）、国家自然科学基金国际合作重点项目“中国区域物质足迹核算与应用研究——基于环境拓展的多区域投入产出分析和物质流分析”（41661144023）和教育部人文社会科学项目“长三角地区碳排放峰值模拟与脱钩路径研究——基于结构分解分析和回归分析的视角”（15YJC790136）。
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2017.01.003