The Allocation of Cross Regional Pollution Control Resources under the Perspective of Spatial Correlation
Xu Fei
摘要：本文基于大气污染空间关联特征，结合政府污染治理联防联治原则，构建中央政府总量控制配置优化模型和统一价格拍卖配置决策模型，以实现治污资源配置帕累托最优和环境治理总成本降低。并以北京市和天津市空气质量指数AQI 为例，应用Copula 联合分布函数对京津城市间大气污染排放联合分布作仿真预测，进行中央政府总量控制和统一价格拍卖治污资源优化配置仿真优化。结果表明：降低资源配置错配率更有利于实现资源配置的帕累托最优；基于正态Copula 联合分布预测数据来优化配置结果，更接近北京市和天津市实际污染排放优化配置结果。本文研究表明地区间污染排放空间关联应成为跨区域治污资源配置决策依据之一。
关键词：治污资源配置；帕累托改进；Copula函数；空气质量指数
Abstract: Based on the characteristics of air pollution control resource allocation, this paper constructed the model of the central government allocation and the uniform price auction allocation model, which set the goal of reducing the mismatch rate and reducing the total cost of environmental governance. Taking Beijing and Tianjin as an example, the Copula joint distribution, random distribution and normal distribution were used to air pollution prediction. The results show that the allocation of resources to reduce the mismatch rate is more conductive to the Pareto optimal allocation. The distribution of atmospheric pollution in Beijing and Tianjin had a thick lower tail correlation. The forecast data based on Normal-Copula was closer to the actual results.
Keywords: Allocation of Pollution Control Resource; Pareto Improvement; Copula Function; Air Quality Index
基金资助:安徽省哲学社会科学青年项目“制度距离、进入壁垒与安徽省区域产业融合研究”（AHSKQ2016D49）、安徽省社会科学普及规划项目“基于大数据的社科普及表达模型及其理论基础”（Y2016005）和安徽省教育厅高校人文社会科学项目“CFO履职环境、离职事件与会计信息质量影响研究”（SK2017A0277）
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2017.01.004