The Evolution of Temporal and Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of the Air Pollution in China
Peng Lisi,Sun Han and Nie Feifei
摘要：本文选取2004-2014 年我国30 个省市自治区（不含港澳台及西藏地区）面板数据，运用统计学和GIS 方法分析了近11 年来我国大气污染的时空分布演变趋势，应用空间计量经济学方法实证分析了PM10污染的影响因素。结果表明：2004-2012 年期间，各地区PM10年均浓度大致上都呈平稳下降的趋势，但是2013 和2014 年却大幅上升；PM10浓度分布区间逐渐缩小，并向低浓度方向集中；从空间上看，2004-2012 年，全国PM10污染程度大大减轻，重污染区域逐渐减小，华东、华北、华中及西南地区污染改善情况最为明显，但是主要污染区域格局并未发生太大变化，还是以西北和华北部分地区为主；我国省域PM10污染存在显著的空间效应，与产业结构、环保投入和人口密度呈显著正相关，与城市绿化和城市降水呈显著负相关。
关键词：大气污染；PM10；污染时空格局；空间计量模型
Abstract: The paper analyze the evolution trend of space-time distribution of atmospheric pollution in recent 11 years by using statistical and GIS methods, and analyze the influence factors of PM10 by using spatial econometrics method. The results show that: the average annual concentration of PM10 steadily declined in the period of 2004-2012, but had increased sharply in 2013 and 2014; The distribution range of the concentration of PM10 gradually narrowed to focus on the low concentration direction; From spatial aspect, in 2004-2012, the national PM10 pollution level was greatly reduced and the number of areas with heavy pollution was gradually decreased, and the improvement of air pollution in the East, North, Central and Southwest China was most obvious, but the main pollution pattern has not changed much, mainly in parts of the Northwest and North China; There is a significant spatial effect of PM10 pollution in China, which has a significant positive correlation with the industrial structure, environmental protection investment and population density, and negatively correlated with urban greening and urban precipitation.
Keywords: Air Pollution; PM10; Air Pollution’s Temporal and Spatial Pattern; Spatial Econometrics Model
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2017.01.005