The Efficiency and Reduction Cost of Carbon Emission in China’s Planting Industry
Wu Xianrong, Zhang Junbiao and Cheng Wenneng
摘要：本文在构建农业经济核算体系时，同时考虑期望产出与碳排放等环境因素的非期望产出，利用方向距离函数及非期望产出影子价格方法，估算1993-2014 年中国30 个省（市、区）的种植业低碳生产效率及边际减排成本，并采用核密度函数对边际减排成本的区域差异动态趋势进行探究。结果显示：①中、东部地区效率水平较高且趋于平稳，位于前沿生产面上，不存在效率损失，而西部地区效率值相对偏低并呈现波动下降趋势，且全国效率平均值在考察期内呈现先波动下降再短期上升趋势；②青海、北京、天津、宁夏、上海、海南等地碳排放影子价格较高，表明这些地区的种植业碳减排的经济成本相对较高，且各地区碳排放影子价格时序变化呈现降多增少的特征；③从碳减排成本核密度曲线来看，种植业碳减排成本地区差异性在样本考察期内明显缩小，且碳减排成本平均水平在减小。
关键词：种植业碳排放；低碳生产效率；减排成本；影子价格
Abstract: This paper constructs the agricultural economic accounting system, taking the desirable outputs and the undesirable outputs of environmental factors such as carbon emissions into account. Based on the directional distance function, we use the shadow price model of agricultural carbon emissions to estimate the marginal carbon emission reduction cost of China's 30 provinces from 1993 to 2014, then explore the regional differences and dynamic trends. The results show that: The efficiency in the eastern and central regions on the production frontier and without technical inefficiency, is relatively higher and tends to be stable, while the efficiency of the western region is relatively lower and shows a downward trend. The average value of national efficiency shows a volatile decline trend and then following a short-term upward trend in the study period; The cost of carbon emission reduction in Qinghai, Beijnig, Tianjin, etc., are relatively high, and the shadow prices of carbon emission in most regions show a decreasing trend; From the Kernel Density curve, the regional difference of carbon emission reduction cost see an obvious decreasing trend during our sample investigation period, and the average carbon emission reduction cost is decreasing.
Keywords: Planting Industry Carbon Emission; Low carbon Production Efficiency; Reduction Cost; Shadow Price
基金资助:国家自然科学基金重点项目“现代农业科技发展创新体系研究”（71333006）、国家自然科学基金青年项目“利益协同目标下农业科技共同体研发福利测度及其增进策略研究”（71503074）、“水稻全生命周期的碳足迹演化及对气候变化的响应机制研究——以长江中下游地区为例”(41501213)和清华大学中国农村研究院博士论文奖学金项目“中国低碳农业绩效与农业碳减排机制研究”（201504）
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2017.01.006