Tracing China’s CO2 Emissions in Global Value Chains
Meng Bo, Glen Peters and Wang Zhi
摘要：中国是碳排放大国，在国际社会面临着巨大的减排压力。同时，中国也是全球价值链的重要参与者， 从中受益匪浅。理清排放与价值链之间的关系，对于讨论如何科学地分担排放责任以及合理地推进国际环境治理十分重要。本文介绍了一套全新的环境核算体系，该体系基于一个完全封闭的多国投入产出模型，可分为三个框架。本文采用全球投入产出数据库中1995-2009年数据，分别举实例，以图表形式对该核算体系的三个框架进行详细解释。研究发现，通过国际贸易途径创造的GDP与不经由任何贸易途径仅在国内产业链中创造的GDP相比，环境成本更高；近年来，中国和其他发展中经济体之间的排放转移更加显著；一个国家的碳排放与该国参与价值链的程度、 方式以及位置有着密切的关系。据此提出关注中国和其他发展中国家之间的隐含碳转移等问题， 为全球碳减排提供了重要建议。
关键词：价值链；碳排放；隐含碳；国际贸易
Abstract: China is the largest emitter of carbon emissions in the world, thus is facing enormous pressure to reduce emissions. At the same time, China is also one of the largest beneficiaries due to her active participation in global value chains. Understanding the relationship between carbon emissions and global value chain is crucial for both discussing the so-called carbon leakage through international trade and a political consensus about responsibility sharing between developed and developing economies. This paper unifies and extends existing emissions trade related measures, quantifies their relationships, and further combines them with trade in value-added and GVC-based measures in recent literature into one consistent accounting framework. Appling this accounting framework to the World Input-Output Database, this paper shows that the environmental cost for generating one unit GDP in domestic production networks is lower than that through international trade for both developed and developing countries; a country's pattern and level of emissions is crucially subject to its position and the extent of its participation, directly or indirectly, in GVCs through international trade; the carbon emission transfer between China and other developing countries has exceeded all bilateral emission trade between any developed economy blocks and China. This could be a great concern when talking about climate change strategy since both China and most developing countries are Non-Annex B economies in Kyoto Protocol and have relatively weak environmental regulations.
Keywords: Value Chain; CO2 Emissions; Embodied Emissions; International Trade
DOI：10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2016.01.002