SectoralDecompositionofChina’sCO2EmissionGrowthDrivers： An Analysis Based on Input-output Model of Non-competitive Imports
Ji Junping，Hu Guangxiao and Ma Xiaoming
摘要：识别中国碳排放增长的关键驱动因素及关键部门对于科学地制定碳减排方案、 尽早实现碳排放峰值目标具有重要指导意义。本文扩展了分部门的结构分解分析法， 基于非竞争进口型投入产出模型研究了中国生产部门碳排放增长的关键驱动因素及部门。结果表明， 最终需求规模是唯一的碳排放增长因素， 固定资本形成总额、 出口及城镇居民消费是碳排放增长的主要需求类型， 而建筑业以及各类设备制造业是需求规模增长的主要部门； 碳排放强度是主要的碳排放减缓因素， 但与其他时期相比该因素引起的减排量较小， 电力业碳排放强度不降反升是其主要原因； 投入产出结构在2007年至2012年首次成为主要的减排因素， 主要得益于电力业及建筑业投入产出结构的大幅优化。为使中国尽早实现减排目标， 建议控制建筑业固定资本形成总额的过快增长， 以提高发电效率、 优化发电结构为抓手降低各部门碳排放强度， 推动各生产部门提高投入产出效率。
关键词：环境投入产出分析；结构分解分析；部门分解；二氧化碳排放
Abstract：Identifying the main drivers and sectors of China's CO2 emission growth is of great significance to develop mitigation plans and to achieve China's emissions peak target. In this paper, we investigate the primary drivers and sectors for China's production-emission growth based on an input-output model of non-competitive imports and a sector-based method of structural decomposition analysis. The results show that final demand level, dominated by gross fixed capital formation, exports, and urban household consumption, is the only emission-growth driver. Construction and manufacturing sectors contribute the most of the demand-driven emissions. CO2 emission intensity remains the top mitigation driver. However, its emission reduction is much lower than reductions in other phases, because of the increase in the emission intensity of power sector. Input-output structure emerges as the second major driver for emission reduction from 2007 to 2012. The main reason is the optimization of the supply chain of construction and electricity production in this period. To help China achieve mitigation goals, we suggest that China should curb over-construction of gross fixed capital formation, decrease the emission intensities of production sectors by improving the efficiency, and optimizing the structure of power generation and increase productivity.
Keywords：Environmentally Extended Input-output Analysis; Structural Decomposition Analysis; Sectoral Decomposition; CO2 Emissions
全文：
基于非竞争进口型投入产出模型的中国碳排放增长因素部门分解研究.pdf
DOI：10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2016.01.004