Energy Structure, Haze Governance and Sustainable Growth
Chen Shiyi and Chen Dengke
摘要：中国雾霾频发引起了国内外的广泛关注， 与此同时经济发展进入 “新常态”阶段， 经济下行压力增加。在此背景下， 雾霾的形成机制是什么以及如何实现治霾和增长双赢的目标是亟需回答的问题。为此， 本文综合运用联立方程组模型与增长核算分析框架测算了主要污染物对雾霾的贡献度， 并在此基础上进一步模拟了实现治霾和经济增长双赢目标的能源结构演化路径与相应的政策选择。研究发现：（1） 煤炭消耗是雾霾主要污染物 PM2.5 的首要贡献者；（2） 为同时实现2025年经济增长率保持6.5%和 PM2.5 浓度在2013年的基础上下降30%的大气防治双赢目标， 工业耗煤占一次工业能源消费的比重须从2013年的68.5%下降到2025年的50%；（3） 能源结构的合理演化不会自发形成， 需要政府进行合理的财政补贴。
关键词：能源结构；治霾和经济增长双赢；财政补贴
Abstract：While China's economic development has entered the New Normal phase and economy downward pressure increases, its heavy haze has caused widespread concern at home and abroad. Therefore, what is the haze formation mechanism and how to achieve win-win goal of reducing haze and promoting economic growth are the urgent questions to be answered. To this end, this paper makes use of simultaneous equations and growth accounting model to calculate the contributions of major pollutants to the haze pollution. Moreover, based on this, the energy dynamic path and policy options to achieve the win-win goal are further simulated. The results imply: (1) Coal consumption is the primary contributor to PM2.5 pollution in China; (2) To achieve the win-win goal, that is, economic growth rate stays above 6.5% and PM2.5 concentration reduces by 30% in the next ten years, the proportion of industrial energy consumption needs to be reduced from 68.5% in 2013 to 50% in 2025; (3) The reasonable energy structure will not form spontaneously, the government needs to conduct financial subsidies.
Keywords: Energy Structure; Win-win Goal; Financial Subsidies
DOI:10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2016.01.005