Environmental Regulation, Upgrading of Industrial Structure and Economic Fluctuation：An Empirical Study of Dynamic Panel Threshold
Zhang Dan and Chen Leyi
摘要：当前，我国经济社会已步入增长速度换挡和结构调整阵痛的“新常态”， 如何通过环境规制促进产业结构升级并减缓经济波动是我国面临的重要问题。本 文以2003-2016年中国35个工业行业为研究对象，运用动态面板门槛技术对环境 规制与经济波动之间的直接效应及产业结构升级效应进行实证检验。研究发现环 境规制与经济波动之间存在倒“U”型关系，且环境规制对产业结构升级及经济波动 存在技术创新门槛，跨过技术创新门槛值后，加强环境规制可通过促进产业结构合理 化或产业结构高级化熨平经济波动。因此，政府在制定政策时应针对不同行业设置 差异化的环境规制水平，通过政策优惠提高技术创新投入，优化结构并提高效率。
关键词：环境规制；产业结构合理化；产业结构高级化；经济波动
Abstract: At present, China's economy and society have entered the new normal of the shift of growth rate and the pain of structural adjustment. How to promote the upgrading of industrial structure and slow down the economic fluctuation through environmental regulation is an important problem. This paper takes 35 industrial sectors in China from 2003 to 2016 as the research object, and uses dynamic panel threshold technology to empirically test the direct effect between environmental regulation and economic fluctuation and the upgrading effect of industrial structure. It is found that there is an inverted U relationship between environmental regulation and economic fluctuation, and there is a threshold of technological innovation for industrial structure upgrading and economic fluctuation. After crossing the threshold of technological innovation, strengthening environmental regulation can smooth economic fluctuation by promoting rationalization of industrial structure or upgrading of industrial structure. Therefore, the government should set different levels of environmental regulation for different industries, improve investment in technological innovation through preferential policies, optimize the structure and improve efficiency.
Keywords: Environmental Regulation; Rationalization of Industrial Structure; Upgrading of Industrial Structure; EconomicFluctuation
DOI10.19511/j.cnki.jee.2019.02.007