ISSN 2096-2533

CN 42-1881/F



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发布时间:2019-12-31作者:龚承柱 吴德胜 龚年姣浏览次数:88


The Potential Impact and Path of Natural Gas Upstream Marketization Reform in China

Gong Chengzhu, Wu Desheng and Gong Nianjiao





AbstractAlthough the Chinese government has made significant progress in promoting the marketization of natural gas, market access in the upstream market and pricing between different sources of natural gas are still regulated by the government. Thispaperexploresthe potential impact of deepening reform policies on the natural gas market equilibrium and social welfare, which include upstream market multi-source complementarity, imported gas price deregulation. This paper adopts the bottom-up approach to develop a multi-agent mixed complementary model of China's natural gas market, which includes gas suppliers, pipeline operators, storage operators and consumers. Moreover, we designed different degree of liberalization scenarios to simulate the performance of the regional natural gas market. The results show that the Cournot competitive perspective of the supply market will lead suppliers to exert market power, thereby reducing the total supply of natural gas and raising the average retail price, but the market power of existing suppliers will be weakened as infrastructure improves and suppliers with cost advantages enter. In addition, the study also explores the most suitable import subsidy ratio at this stage. Based on these conclusions, this paper provides a progressive reform path for China's upstream natural gas market, that is, giving priority to ensuring the supply market's multi-subject, multi-channel supply, gradually improving the pipeline, gas storage and other infrastructure, appropriately reduce the level of import subsidies.

Keywords: Natural Gas Industry; Market-oriented Reform; Multi-agent System; Mixed Complementarity Problem






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