ISSN 2096-2533

CN 42-1881/F



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发布时间:2020-04-30作者:齐绍洲 王薇浏览次数:118

The Impact of the Phase III Reform of European Union Emissions Trading System on Carbon Allowance Price

Qi Shaozhou and Wang Wei





Abstract: In December 2017, China officially started the carbon emission trading market with the power industry as the starting point, aiming to promote greenhouse gas emission reduction through the carbon emission trading system. However, in terms of system design, there are still many controversies. Reforms of the third phase of the European Union Emissions Trading System has achieved significant effectiveness. Studying the impact of its key reform measures on the carbon market will provide some experience for China's carbon market construction. This paper focuses on the effectiveness of the three main reform measures in the third phase, that are linear reduction of emission cap, Back-loading of auctions, Market Stability Reserve. Taking the daily data of the EU ETS allowances futures price in the third phase as the explained variable, the three major reform measures are explanatory variables. The time series cointegration model and vector error correction model are used to make a post-assessment on the impact of various factors. The results of the study show that the various reform measures have a positive co-integration relationship with the EU ETS allowances futures price. By improving the market imbalance between supply and demand, the carbon price in the third phase has been effectively raised, long-term incentives and constraints have been formed for covered enterprises. Therefore, in the process of establishing and developing the carbon emissions trading system, China should set the emission cap and design carbon allowance allocation methods reasonably according to China conditions, set up a flexible carbon allowance adjustment mechanism, continuously improve market liquidity, and thus ensure the stable development of the carbon emissions trading market.

Keywords: EU ETS; Phase III Reform; Carbon Allowance Price






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